The weather has changed. In London this week it was too darn hot and a simple trip on the tube meant emerging from the bowels of the earth dripping in sweat. It is difficult to think clearly in that weather. It fries the brain and disrupts sleep. Then from Thursday into Friday the temperature plunged. We went from Indian summer to British autumn and a torrential downpour in less than twelve hours.
Something similar has happened to the reputation of Theresa May. A sudden change in the political air pressure is detectable. As with almost all new Prime Ministers, Theresa May had a honeymoon because the Brits like to give new people a chance. In the case of the latest Tory leader there was another impetus to generosity and gratitude, however. The trauma of the referendum campaign in May and June was followed by epoch-defining Conservative chaos, a Shakespearean drama that was highly entertaining but disconcerting to the public. Step forward Mrs May, striding purposefully towards Number 10, stepping around the squabbling boys rolling about in the street. Here was a grown-up offering calm leadership.
Her honeymoon is now over. I would not wish to exaggerate the implications. Not only is Labour led by a total twit, there is also much to admire in Mrs May’s approach, the way in which the committee structure of government is working and cabinet discussions are more open. David Davis is taking a collegiate approach and Boris Johnson is playing a blinder by keeping out of trouble. Even so, there is trouble in paradise.
There are a number of straws in the wind. Here are six:
1) Philip Hammond, the new Chancellor, is pushing back. He will not tolerate Number 10 trying to boss his advisors and officials around, I am told. James Forsyth reports in the The Sun that the Chancellor resisted May’s attempts to restrict foreign takeovers and limit executive pay when the cabinet committee on the economic and industrial strategy met on Thursday. Those measures were supposed to be several of her signature economic reforms but Hammond is refusing to roll over. May began as the unchallenged leader, the boss who would get what she wanted. Already, perhaps because of the mistakes being made by Team May (see point 2 and 3) even an instinctive loyalist such as Hammond is asserting himself.
2) The grammar schools policy is a mess. A sensible change allowing new grammars where there is a demand has suffered from inadequate planning and poor presentation, and is now cast in the media as the widespread reintroduction of the 11 plus which will spook parents and pupils. May should have begun with a big speech or a series of speeches on the success of the Adonis, Blair, Gove reforms and used this to say that she wanted to go a little further and explore introducing greater diversity of provision. The central point – how can the bright urban poor get an elite education of the kind that Winchester-educated Corbynite Seamus Milne got for his children by living near Tiffin in Kingston or former education minister Nicky Morgan bought? – was completely lost in the chaos. Simultaneously how can we dramatically improve vocational education? The pitch was not rolled properly and opponents of any hint of selection by ability (who select for their own children by living somewhere expensive) sense ministerial vulnerability. The reform process will now be tricky in the Commons and the Lords. The goal on grammars was so open wide that even Jeremy Corbyn – Jeremy Corbyn! – managed to put the ball in the back of the net at PMQs on Wednesday against an unconvincing May.
3) Parts of Team May are far too controlling for her own good. They want to approve everything and they are pursuing ancient and baffling vendettas, making enemies and even trying to crack down on cabinet ministers having their own interests and lunch companions. This never, never, never, ever works, or not for long. Politics is full of ambition, hurt feelings and gossip and control freakery leads eventually to rebellion and disaster. Some of us hacks are on our fourth of fifth new Downing Street regime. Others longer in the tooth have seen it eight, nine or even ten times and only laugh when told not to offend this year’s supposed arbiter of Downing Street. The Gods of today are simply tomorrow’s guests on BBC Question Time. Take a look at last week’s edition, when the former Labour master of spin Alastair Campbell was forced to scramble around in the dirt with that despicable character John Marxist McDonnell.
4) Anyone behaving imperiously in Team May needs their head examined. The government has a working majority of 12 and is about to enter the most difficult period of constitutional wrangling in more than a century. As a sympathetic Matthew Parris makes clear in the Times today, the Prime Minister needs every friend she can get right now.
5) The decision to go ahead on Hinkley is baffling. The delay she originally announced had lined everyone up for a dramatic shift in energy policy and on diplomatic relations with China. The assumption was that the pause would be used to plot a major change. In the end she announced this week that the deal goes ahead in a largely unchanged form. Weird.
6) May should never have mistreated George Osborne in the way she did, bundling him out of the back door rather than engineering a dignified departure. In opposition and office Osborne took plenty of criticism (from commentators such as me) but he served his country and his party with dedication. His treatment post-referendum was shoddy, and it seems to have prompted him to stick around and do his own thing promoting the Northern Powerhouse initiative which parts of Team May (but not all) have gone cold on. The Osborne calculation may be that if May’s government turns out to be a bit rackety then who knows how long it will last? Look how much has changed in six months. It is far from guaranteed that the May administration will proceed in a stately fashion through the next few years and sail imperiously on towards 2020, especially not if such basic mistakes of statecraft continue to be made.
On the evidence of the last week or so Osborne is right to want to see how this story ends. These are early days and all that, and there is time for a course adjustment by May but with the Brexit negotiations coming not too much time.
