Where Theresa May’s latest diplomatic disaster in Brussels leaves us all
It is tempting to restrict this post – attempting to explain where Theresa May’s latest diplomatic disaster leaves us all – to a snappy two word description, the first being “completely” and the other a six letter word beginning with “f”.
I’ll keep it not quite as short as that, though still short. The argument with Juncker and the developments in Brussels were so humiliating for Britain that it is worth breaking down the implications. They provided May nothing of substance, the crisis is getting worse not better.
1. May’s attempt to get “legally binding” assurances on the backstop have failed, miserably. This was – remember, 48 hours ago – the great gambit that saved her leadership and was supposed to be the (incredible) solution to the UK’s negotiating difficulties. Now gone, turned to dust.
2. May keeps walking into these diplomatic disasters. The Salzburg fiasco in September was bad enough, but here was a UK Prime Minister at the end of a humiliating week at home going to European allies and begging for as much assistance as possible to please Parliament. The EU27 turned her down in blunt fashion. The pro-Brussels, Remain view in the UK will presumably be that this is the silly old British government being unable to explain what it seeks. Bruno Waterfield’s scoop for The Times this lunchtime showed developments in a different light. There was a draft document, created by officials, but the leaders were so unimpressed by May that they pulled the few lines that might have offered Number 10 comfort.
3. The action of EU leaders, led this time by the Dutch, in slapping down May, suggests that all trust or faith in her capabilities and usefulness as an interlocutor is gone. May tried in her press conference on Friday lunchtime to say she has had encouraging conversations since last night’s horror show of a meeting in Brussels. These assurances are not worth the paper they are not written on.
4. The Tory leadership is a live issue this weekend; it was not settled this week by the confidence vote; the country needs a leader. The cabinet should act, but probably won’t. Still, the conversations are intense. The latest row in Brussels was – I stress again – a national humiliation, and a personal humiliation for May. Even I – a longterm critic of May – feel very sorry for her. Yet someone needs to take over and the Tories need to get a move on . The main aim outside the ERG-crowd that I detect seems to be in blocking Boris, or in establishing as far as possible that he can’t win. I doubt he can, at this stage. The 200 who voted for May and many more besides would do everything to block BoJo. I still think in a crisis Sajid Javid is the most likely person to emerge, although Dominic Raab could win. The key to success, other than in finding the right person, lies is preventing this contest becoming a long affair. In a national emergency, all should agree to serve under the winner among MPs and only go to the membership in the summer if that is thought appropriate or necessary. Goodness knows where we’ll be by then. Hopefully out of the EU…
5. Cross party compromise efforts – independent of Number 10 – are now stepping up. Lord Bridges, Conservative peer, writing on Reaction this week, proposed a compromise arrangement of a customs union for goods and agri-products, building on May’s deal. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has highlighted and praised the idea several times since. Meanwhile, the Norway crowd are also trying again to build a cross party push for their proposal.
6. No deal rising. One of the compromise solutions might win through in the end. Perhaps a coalition of interests will coalesce behind a compromise plan. I’m sceptical though about the practicalities. They need a Prime Minister, a front bench, and a majority to pass legislation. Without that, a no deal exit is the default.
7. Wildcard thought – it all comes down to Corbyn. He really screws the Conservatives by voting in January for a compromise deal containing a customs union, taking the UK out in March 29th, perhaps even splitting the Tories. A lot now rests on where he chooses to land. Unfashionable view, he’s a playing a blinder. I’ll write more on this. He’s resisting most of the Labour party in refusing (so far) a referendum rerun and he’s making the Tories own the chaos. And every day he gets close and closer to his dream of Brexit day. Tony Benn, Corbyn’s eurosceptic guru, would be very proud.