Time for Ireland to get real about defence

Germany – long considered a laggard in terms of its contribution to Nato – announced this week that it has established a €100 billon (£85bn) fund to expand and re-equip its military. Chancellor Olaf Scholz, a Social Democrat, went on to vow that his country would spend at least 2 per cent of its GDP on defence in the years to come. The result should be transformational. Berlin is signalling that from now on it is ready to shoulder its full share of the Nato burden and that, for the first time in more than 60 years, it is willing to assume a leadership role in the defence of Europe alongside France and the UK. Meanwhile, in Dublin, there are no moves afoot to do anything. Ireland remains neutral and continues to spend less than 0.3 per cent of its GDP on defence.

No one would expect the Republic, which sits on Europe’s western edge and has a population of just five million, to make much of a difference in any major global conflict. Dublin is a long way from Kyiv, and even further from Moscow. But as things stand, it does next to nothing, relying on Britain for its maritime and air defence and deploying its soldiers – all 7,300 of them – exclusively as UN-approved peacekeepers.

This can’t go on. Ireland needs to join Nato. Either that or it should add its voice to that of the French in lobbying for the creation of a European Army. There is no longer honour in neutrality. Avoiding the issue after the events this month in Ukraine cannot remain an option.

Germany has a population of 80 million, which is 16 times greater than that of the Republic. If Berlin is willing to spend €100bn playing catch-up, how much should Ireland come up with? The answer is €6.25bn, which happens to be six times its 2022 defence budget of €1.1bn.

But it doesn’t have to to be six billion. Three billion would do. Even one billion would be a start. At least it would show willing.

It is not as if they can’t afford it. The Republic is now one of the richest EU member states, with a nominal GDP per capita of more than €75,000 – 30 per cent higher than the UK. So why don’t they pull their weight? What’s stopping them?

The answer, frugality aside (why spend when you don’t have to?) is rooted in history. After winning its independence from the UK in 1921, the leadership of both Fianna Fail and Fine Gael (the two dominant political parties) made a point of keeping out of any conflicts in which Britain was involved, including, to Churchill’s chagrin, the entirety of the Second World War.

In the decades that followed, Ireland avoided the Korean War, the Vietnam War and the Cold War, and took no part in the Allied invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq. During the Falklands conflict, it refused to sanction or boycott Argentina.

Debate over neutrality briefly flickered when the country followed the UK into what is now the EU in 1973, only to die down again as the focus settled around grants, loans and the exploitation of the Common Agricultural Policy. Even today, for most Irish politicians, Nato is a no-no.

The national army (Óglaigh na hÉireann) is decently equipped for peacekeeping duties (the Congo, Cyprus, Lebanon), but lacks heavy armour and other offensive weaponry. It has never gone to war. The Irish Navy has nine small ships that engage exclusively in offshore patrol and fisheries protection. There is no air force, just an air corps equipped with a scattering of helicopters and maritime surveillance aircraft.

What, then, are the chances that the Republic – awash with cash, including €34 billion in Russian money “resting” in Dublin’s International Financial Services Centre – will either sign up to Nato or else commit itself to participation in any European Army that might emerge in the coming years?

We may have to wait some time for an answer. The most that can be expected is a somewhat bigger budget to provide for a couple more ships and, just possibly, a squadron of jet fighters – probably French. My guess is that the situation will carry on as now until Ireland is shamed into action by its partners, whether in Nato or the EU. Until then, the official response is likely to remain, “Thanks, but no tanks.”