Top 10 marginals where Brexit Party could deny the Tories

The Brexit Party is pressing ahead standing candidates in Labour-held seats that the Tory party needs to win for an overall majority in the election. Nigel Farage’s supporters say that the Tories were presumptuous in assuming that the Brexit Party should stand aside. Rupert Lowe stood down in Dudley North, where former Labour MP Ian Austin stood aside. At the last election, Labour had a majority in the seat of 22. It voted 67.6% leave. In a closely-fought campaign these decisions could make all the difference. Where are the top ten Labour marginals – in order of most marginal – in England in which a Brexit party candidate may complicate voting patterns and change the result?

1) Kensington, London

Estimates suggest constituents voted 68.7% Remain and 31.3% Leave on a turnout of 65.9%.

In 2017, Labour’s Emma Dent Coad won 16,333 votes with the Tories just 20 behind on 16,313. The Lib Dems won 3,724.

Swing required for Tories to win is 0.03%.

The Brexit Party is standing ex-Bucks Fizz singer Jay Aston as its candidate.

2) Newcastle-under-Lyme, West Midlands

Pollsters estimate it voted 63% Leave.

At the 2017 general election, Labour held by 30 votes with 21,124 votes against 21,094 for the Tories.

Swing required for the Tories is 0.03%.

The Brexit Party candidate is Dr Jason Cooper.

3) Crewe and Nantwich, North West

60% Leave.

Labour held by 48 votes in 2017. Laura Smith won 25,928 while the Tories got 25,880.

UKIP came third on 1,885 votes.

Swing required for Tories is 0.04%.

The Brexit Party candidate is Matthew Wood.

4) Canterbury, South East

51% Leave.

Currently, a Labour majority of 187. The party won 25,572 votes in 2017 against 25,385 for the Tories. The Lib Dems polled 4,561.

Swing required for Tory gain is 0.016%.

Owen Prew is standing for the Brexit Party.

5) Barrow and Furness, North West

60% Leave.

Labour’s John Woodcock won 22,592 votes against 22,383 for the Tories in 2017 – a majority of 209.

Woodcock is now standing down.

Swing required for Tory gain is 0.22%.

Ged McGrath, a former Conservative councillor has defected from the Tories to lead the Brexit Party campaign.

6) Keighley, Yorkshire

53% Leave

Majority of 249. In 2017, Labour won 24,066 votes and the Tories 23,817.

Swing required is 0.24%.

Waqas Ali Khan is standing for the Brexit Party.

7) Ashfield, East Midlands

Leave 70%.

In 2017, Labour’s Gloria De Piero held on by 441 winning 21,285 votes against 20,844 for the Tories.

UKIP won 1,885 votes at the last election.

Swing required for Tory gain is 0.44%.

Brexit Party candidate is Martin Daubney, one of the party’s most effective and high-profile media performers.

A further complication is that Jason Zadrozny is running the Ashfield Independents, a party which did well at Council elections earlier this year.

8) Stroud, South West

54% voted Remain.

In 2017, Labour’s David Drew won 29,994 votes against 29,307 for the Tories, a majority of 687.

Swing required is 0.54% for a Tory gain.

UKIP won 1,039 votes.

The Brexit Party candidate is Desi Latimer.

9) Bishop Auckland, North East

Voted 61% Leave.

Labour’s Helen Goodman won 20,808 votes in 2017 with the Tories on 20,306, a majority of 502.

Swing required is 0.54% for Tories.

Nick Brown (not the Labour party’s Nick Brown) is the Brexit Party candidate.

10) Peterborough, East of England

57% Leave.

Labour won 22,950 votes at the last election to 22,343 for the Tories, a majority of 607.

Swing required by the Tories is 0.64%.

Mike Greene – another high-profile candidate – is standing for the Brexit Party.