You thought Dominic Cummings had gone quiet? Think again. In a blog post last week, the Vote Leave architect wrote, “Her [Truss] and her team are so bad it’s close to impossible (i.e 99% confidence) that she can recover and be seen by the public as a decent PM.”

As you might expect, Cummings poured scorn on the recent mini-budget and suggested that there was no way she could recover the situation in the long-term: “But No10/11 is snookered by the collapse of confidence in them. Big spending cuts to services? MPs will revolt. Benefits rise with incomes not inflation? MPs will revolt. U-turn on energy announcement? Another unpopular shambles … Reverse the tax cuts? Humiliating”. 

He also said it would be “even more ludicrous and contemptible” if the government were to announce cuts to R&D and spending on scientific research having previously made such a show of their devotion to economic growth. 

He went on to speculate on whether Conservative MPs will move against Truss in the weeks ahead: 

“Will she be replaced? Conventional wisdom has been: no. My guess: yes.” 

“When? 50-50 before Christmas.”

“Another members vote? My guess: No.” 

Cummings suggested that the Tories might fiddle with the leadership nomination rules to ensure that only one candidate wins in the MP-voting phase, therefore preventing the members voting for their chosen candidate from the final pair (as happened this summer with Truss and Sunak).

But he also imagines another scenario, what he calls “the biggest possible prolonged disaster”: “They [Tory MPs] put the letters in, then keep her, then collapse further, then put the letters in again (per Boris), then actually do a member vote instead of stitching it up”.

Cummings says that the rule he now tends to go by when making predictions is “assume Tories will do the most stupid thing”. It’s sometimes hard to believe that just two years ago this man was working for a Conservative government. 

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