Tories should not be seduced by Santa Claus

Rishi Sunak has a problem. A chunk of the Conservative party membership is angry with him for precipitating Boris Johnson’s fall. Another group cannot understand why, if Boris was so unworthy, Mr Sunak did not quit earlier. There is, of, course, an answer which covers both points. In an economic crisis, the Chancellor has a duty to stay at his post for as long as he can. So for many months, Rishi Sunak put up with hostile briefings from No.10, not to mention the PM’s unfocused approach to economic policy, until the PM’s ultimate moral implosion. In both staying and leaving, Mr Sunak can claim to have done the right thing.

Now the Party membership has to do its duty. We know less about those members than a lot of comments would suggest. For a start. they vary from constituency, region to region. So the generalisations which follow are tentative. On the whole, Tory members are good people. Many of them served in the forces, or have relatives who wore – and indeed wear – the Queen’s uniform. They tend to be involved in the local meals on wheels. The ladies are often responsible for the flower arrangements in Church. Some will be magistrates: others will be stalwarts in the local conservation society and similar bodies. They are all socially concerned. The Church of England may no longer be the Tory party at prayer (so much the worse for the Church). But much local social activism is still the Tory party with its sleeves rolled up.

When it comes to politics, Tory members tend to be conscientious. They will listen to the arguments before making a final decision, which is why the race is still more open than the polls would suggest. That said, they are not blank canvases. They tend to be on the right of the Party: opposed to the EU and abhorring political correctness. There is also a tendency to nimbyism, which is a problem for the Government when trying to formulate a sensible housing policy.

They also tend to be older than the average age of the population There are two reasons for this. At least until the pandemic, younger Tories often spent longer in the office than would have been the case a generation ago. So they have less time for politics. But they have been replaced by fit sixty and seventy year olds who have time and energy  and need more outlets than bridge and golf.

These Tories have a further political instinct which has not yet been much in evidence: realism. many of them have run businesses. They have often had experience of adverse conditions. They know that optimism must always be tempered by calculation, and they do not believe in Santa Claus. That is for their grandchildren.

This makes it surprising that many of them appear to be seduced by Liz Truss. In an age of equal opportunity, it is right that there should be female Santa Clauses and no reason why one such should not officiate at the Downing Street Christmas party. But other qualities are needed for No.10 during the working day. Liz Truss is inviting the Tory electorate to come with her on a trip to Hamley’s, with no constraints on pocket money. It will not do – and to describe this approach to economic management as Thatcherism suggests that Miss Truss needs to study Margaret Thatcher’s actual record.

In her final speech to the Tory Party Conference, the great Lady announced her intention on cutting taxes when the country could afford it. That would have been her approach today. She would have been horrified by the idea that it would be safe to cut taxes by £30 billion when inflation is almost out of control and the supply-side constraints which are stoking it could easily get worse. The markets would share her reaction.

Miss Truss may not have noticed it, but we are living in a dangerous world. Throughout the West, governments are weak. Among other problems, the Euro could face a terminal crisis. One ought to be cautious in predicting that. Over the years, some of us have worn out several sandwich-boards which proclaimed that the end of the Euro was nigh. We should have heeded Mario Draghi, when he declared that he would do whatever it took to save it. Now, he is relinquishing a lesser task: turning ‘Italian government’ from an oxymoron into a reality, while the Euro’s basic flaw remains what it always was. In the long-run, it is impossible to have monetary union without a large measure of fiscal union, which means political union. That is simply not going to happen ‘In the long-run, we are all dead’, Keynes reminded us. But the Euro’s run may be coming to a close. Although that prospect might hearten British Eurosceptics, it would inevitably bring short-term disruption when we are already disrupted enough.

In these difficult times, we need tough-minded realism. Miss Truss seems incapable of either. We can be sure that she is sincere in her desire to cheer us all up. But if she tried to implement her fiscal policies, the cheerfulness would be so short-lived as to be invisible.

Rishi Sunak has made it clear that he too is a tax-cutter by conviction. But like Margaret Thatcher before him, he would wait until it was safe to do. Common sense is not a common quality. Yet one might have thought that it would be found, and in sizeable quantities, among the Tory party’s membership. Anyone who cares about the country’s prospects must pray that over the next few weeks, common sense and realism assert themselves, against the lure of false prospectuses and fool’s gold.