“If you put a horse back to work when it’s injured, it will never recover.” Those were the fateful words used by Humphry Wakefield – the father-in-law of Dominic Cummings – to describe Boris Johnson last summer; a time when it felt like there was no end in sight to lockdown. With lingering health problems and worries that he was flat broke, rumours began to circulate in the autumn surrounding the PM’s future.
Six months later, the PM’s position has improved, thanks to the wondrous vaccines. And then…
Dom, like the IRA, hadn’t gone away.
Relinquished of his duties as Downing Street’s SpAd-in-chief, he is back in the spotlight with an explosive attack on his former boss. “It is sad to see the PM and his office fall so far below the standards of competence and integrity the country deserves,” he wrote on Friday.
The PM’s bizarre decision to respond with a briefing war has raised fresh questions over Boris’s judgment. What more will emerge?
For the first time in a while, a runners and riders leadership race special is required.
Here is Reaction’s form guide to those who will want a shot at glory if Boris gets done in. No bookmakers have been consulted. This is not a gambling site.
Rishi Sunak (3/1)
The runaway favourite to replace Johnson is Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rishi Sunak. Few knew who the MP for Richmond, Yorkshire, was before the pandemic struck Britain. During his year in the Treasury, Sunak has built a winning brand: his sleek use of social media and catchy soundbites make him a darling among voters. His raft of economic policies – including the ‘Eat Out to Help Out’ scheme, garnering him the nickname ‘Dishy Rishi’ – have been central to the UK’s economic bounce back – but did the meal deal fuel the second wave? His charisma – and his belief in Britain being a nation of tolerance for immigrant families like his – makes him a Tory tour de force. He would be good for the Union too. Boris is never going to appeal to Scots. Rishi, on the other hand, would. And he’s upbeat, optimistic. What a contrast with Sturgeon and Blackford, both serially furious. What a grim picture they present of Scotland. Blackford’s demeanour has become that of a 1950s Church of Scotland minister who has seen pictures in the Sunday Post newspaper of people enjoying themselves, and simultaneously his underpants have been overstarched. Anyway, back to Sunak. Is there, critics wonder, something fishy about Dishy Rishi? Is he just too perfect? Why are his ties so narrow? Why does he claim to drink so much Coke but remain thinner than Twiggy in 1965? The front-runner has started brilliantly, but there are more fences left to jump.
Liz Truss (7/1)
Some people mock Liz Truss for her monotone self-promotion – “that… is… a… disgrace” – but you cannot deny her Tory appeal. This month, she topped Conservative Home’s monthly Cabinet league table, beating Sunak by 10 points. While rows continue – about leaks and Covid restrictions and Carrie’s wallpaper – the Trade Secretary has quietly got on with the job of securing Britain’s future post-Brexit. She has signed over 60 trade deals with the likes of Japan, Australia and Canada; a feat many Remainers and economists did not think would be possible. She is also unapologetic to the progressive wing of her party having dropped self-identification plans for trans people when Women’s Minister. A libertarian in principle and a Thatcherite at heart, Truss is a dark horse. One to watch.
Priti Patel (8/1)
Yep. You might have your doubts about Priti Patel, you stuck up member of the metropolitan so-called elite. Sorry, came over a bit Priti Patel-ish there. But do not forget that parts of the Tory grassroots love Priti, because she infuriates non-Tories and is tough on crime and all that. Whether this can translate into victory in a leadership contest is quite another matter. How would she hold up under sustained questioning during a campaign? What, for example, are her views on the economy? Er… she’s in favour. A large number of MPs would work flat out to prevent her from making it to the final two where the membership vote, because if she made it that far she could win.
Jeremy Hunt (10/1)
Jeremy Hunt has been out of government for a year and a half now, but he is still ambitious and determined to land up in Number 10. As chair of the Health and Social Care Select Committee, Hunt has been pretty effective in holding Boris Johnson’s administration to account over its handling of the virus. Hunt remains one of the most experienced backbenchers: he served in the Cabinet for nearly a decade, most recently as Foreign Secretary but also as Secretary of State for Health and Social Care, and Culture, Media and Sport. Hunt came runner-up in the last leadership contest. He’s the safe pair of hands and he has money (he is an entrepreneur) so would not need to borrow money to pay for wallpaper.
Michael Gove (20/1)
Never write off Gove. Back in the 2019 contest, Michael Gove pitched himself as the “unity candidate” to attract Remainers and Brexiteers alike. It didn’t work. But with Britain out of the EU, what qualities does Gove have which make him a top choice? As Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster and Minister at the Cabinet Office, Gove has been instrumental in “getting Brexit done”. He will play a central role behind the scenes in promoting the Union in the face of support for independence. He has enemies – to put it mildly. And Cummings was his pal. Gove is caught in the middle. Nevertheless, it takes quite the politician to have survived and reinvented himself several times. Gove certainly has the necessary administrative qualities required for Number 10.
Dominic Raab (22/1)
Dominic Raab can say that he is the only candidate to have any formal prime ministerial experience, filling in as de facto leader when Boris was hospitalised with Covid-19. A descendent of Czech Jewish immigrants, Raab likes to frame himself as a product of modern Britain, where anyone, regardless of background, can succeed. Elected to Parliament in 2010, Raab worked his way up the party ranks, serving in several ministries before succeeding David Davis as Brexit Secretary. His time was short-lived, but Raab was soon back on the frontbench as Foreign Secretary and has turned into a vocal critic of China over its treatment of Uyghur Muslims. Could he make the big step up to No 10?
Also starting…
Kemi Badenoch (25/1)
A rising star of the Tory party. A minister fighting the war on woke. May be too early for a bid, but fortune favours the bold.
Matt Hancock (30/1) – the Health Secretary been a central figure during the pandemic. Like Sunak, he will have to address questions when the inquiry comes. Hancock is irrepressible. It is said that when he was a main aide to George Osborne in opposition, a secret dining club was formed by some of his colleagues and a sprinkling of journalists, dedicated to ensuring he never became PM. Although this is true it is never publicly mentioned.
Tom Tugendhat (40/1) – CV lacks time in government, but as chair of Foreign Affairs Select Committee he is an eloquent, fluent, impressive operator, who has been influential in changing British policy on China. A leading hawk. May fancy a run.
Penny Mordaunt (45/1) – Mordaunt is an intelligent communicator – sparky, with a sense of humour, although doubts exist as to whether she has the confidence or arrogance needed for the top post. Was once in a swimming contest on television. Served in the military (part-time).
Mark Harper (66/1) – Stood, unsuccessfully, in 2019. Has been Chief Whip. Has since built up his reputation among anti-lockdown colleagues as chair of the Covid Recovery Group (CRG). Underrated, destined to return to Cabinet after the Boris era. Not to be confused with Mark Carney.
Theresa May (100/1) – Has the experience (what an experience) as has already been Prime Minister. “Nothing”, she said, has changed” on the campaign trail in the 2017 election. “Oh yes it has,” replied the voters, who then proceeded to demolish her party’s majority.
Dilyn the Downing Street dog (250/1) – Imagine if Dilyn could talk. The fact that he can’t probably rules Dilyn out, on the basis that he is a dog. A longshot for the top job but still worth a punt. Stranger things have happened in this administration.
