Transnistria and Moldova: Is Putin’s war spreading?

Fears that the war in Ukraine might spread into Moldova have emerged after a series of explosions were reported in Transnistria, a breakaway region in the east of the nation, bordering Ukraine. 

Transnistria has stopped all men of fighting age from leaving its territory. Moldova views this move as a concerning escalation.

The Russian-backed separatist region, which broke from Moldova in 1992, could be next on Russia’s list of targets for the expansion of its war in Ukraine. Here’s what you need to know.

What and where is Transnistria?

Transnistria, which sits on Ukraine’s southwestern border, is a breakaway region of the former Soviet Republic of Moldova. 

Moldova, which has so far taken in 437,000 Ukrainian refugees, is one of Europe’s poorest nations, with annual military spending of just $43 million. 

After separating from Moldova in 1992 in the wake of a short war, Transnistria’s new leaders took control of a narrow stretch of land down the eastern side of Moldova.

The region’s proximity to Ukraine, especially the city of Odesa, which is only 60 km from Ukraine’s border with Transnistria, means that it could act as a springboard for Russian troops to push towards the city.

Despite being internationally recognised as part of Moldova, the Moldovan government in Chisinau has little control of the region, with the self-declared republic receiving backing from Moscow.

Part of Moscow’s support consists of Russian troops stationed in the region, purportedly as peacekeeping forces. Nevertheless, Russia committed to withdrawing these forces from Transnistria at the OECD summit in 1999.

The region has its own national capital, Tiraspol, as well as a flag, constitution, and a national bank.

What has happened in Transnistria?

A number of unexplained explosions have been reported in the region in the past week, leading to concerns that Moldova could be pulled into the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. 

On Monday, the state security headquarters in Tiraspol was, according to Transnistria authorities, targeted by explosions, as was a military unit in the village of Parcani. On Tuesday morning, two soviet-era radio towers, which were used to broadcast Russian news, were damaged by explosions. 

The region’s authorities have now put a red anti-terrorism alert in place, heightening security. 

Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, has claimed the attacks came from Russian special services, contrary to claims from the authorities in Transnistria that Ukrainian “infiltrators” are to blame.

Is Moldova next on the list?

These explosions could constitute the beginning of another false flag operation on Russia’s part – with authorities in Transnistria blaming Ukraine for the explosions, and Russia stating that it is concerned as it has troops stationed in the region.

The Institute for the Study of War has said it is “likely” that the explosions constituted a false flag attack from Russia.

There have also been claims that Russian speakers in Moldova are being oppressed, the same reason that Putin gave to justify his invasion of Ukraine. 

Rustam Minnekayev, deputy commander of Russia’s Central Military District, said last week that “control over the south of Ukraine is another way out to Transnistria, where there are also facts of oppression of the Russian-speaking population.” 

Zelensky claims that Russia’s goal in the attacks was to “destabilise the situation in the region, to threaten Moldova.” 

What might the consequences be?

If Russia decides to expand the theatre of its conflict into Moldova, for which it would be well placed with 1,500 soldiers already stationed in Transnistria, then it would be in striking distance of Odesa, a key Ukrainian port city.

Transnistria is home to the Cobasna ammunition depot, which contains up to 20,000 tons of Soviet-era weapons, and is one of the largest stores of ammunition in Eastern Europe.

The ammunition, which has long since expired, could be at risk if the conflict spreads. The Academy of Sciences of Moldova has estimated that an explosion could be on the scale of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

As Russia concentrates its attacks around port cities on Ukraine’s south coast, it is possible that Putin will continue his push to create a land bridge to Crimea, and Russia will make good on Minnekayev’s aim to gain control of southern Ukraine and push towards Transnistria.