Trump reaps rewards of his criminal record

Donald Trump is celebrating a record-breaking day of campaign donations, after money poured in to reward the presidential hopeful. Not for any awe-inspiring rally but, rather, for his newfound status as convicted felon.

After a six-week trial in New York, Trump was convicted last night on all 34 counts of falsifying business records, in what’s become known as the “hush-money case”, relating to a $130,000 payment he made to porn star, Stormy Daniels, to cover up his alleged tryst with her. 

This is the first time in American history that a former or serving president has been found guilty of a crime.

Trump’s predecessors were missing a trick: within six hours of the guilty verdict being declared, his presidential campaign had raised $35 million from small-dollar donors. So overwhelmed with traffic was his fundraising site last night that it temporarily crashed. 

This afternoon, speaking from the golden Trump Towers in Manhattan, the one-time President denounced the trial once again as a “witch hunt”and insisted Americans are “living in a fascist state”, before celebrating doubling his single-day fundraising record. 

What now? 

New York Justice Juan Merchan will sentence Trump for his felony conviction on 11 July.

There is a genuine possibility that he could face time behind bars – especially if Merchan comes under pressure to demonstrate that no-one is above the law. 

Yet a more likely punishment, given that Trump has been convicted of the lowest-level felony, is a hefty fine, possibly paired with a stint of community service. 

Trump insisted today that he will appeal this unanimous verdict, which could delay the sentencing until after the 5 November US election. 

Curiously, while there are various prerequisites for running for president – such as a minimum age of 35 – a criminal record is not a dealbreaker. Meaning Trump will press on with his bid to return to the Oval Office.

Will a conviction affect his chances? 

Quite possibly, though perhaps not in the way one might expect. 

As the flurry of donation activity demonstrates, the verdict will galvanise his ardent supporters, who wholeheartedly buy into his criticism of a “kangaroo court.”

Yet what really matters is not how the trial will impact his dedicated fanbase, but rather, the effect it will have on undecided voters in swing states. 

Recent polls suggest this year’s election is set to be a razor-thin race, with the two candidates neck-and-neck at around 37 per cent each. But, crucially, in five of the six swing states that will decide the election, Trump maintains a slight edge over Biden.

There is a possibility that some of these undecided voters will feel a degree of sympathy for Trump, and agree that this is a politically motivated trial, with a biased judge and a jury led to a foregone conclusion. 

It may, however, come as somewhat of a relief to hear that there are still a fair few Americans hesitant to elect a convicted felon to lead their country. 

A survey conducted by ABC News back in April found that 16 per cent of individuals backing Trump would reconsider their support if he was found guilty. And another poll conducted by Bloomberg and Morning Consult earlier this year found that 53 per cent of voters in key swing states would refuse to vote for the Republicans if he were convicted.

Even if a few thousand voters who would otherwise have backed Trump in key states like Pennsylvania or Wisconsin decide to stay at home, this could make all the difference.

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