Trump v Biden: a landmark moment in American politics, for all the worst reasons

Rarely in politics do surprises happen on the level they happened around the first Presidential Debate. It would have been hard for anybody to have legitimately anticipated last night’s event. 

The assumption that “Trump would be Trump” just didn’t match the reality. The belief that the President’s force of nature would overwhelm his opponent didn’t play out as many might have guessed. The notion that a debate led by a Fox News host would turn into a slanging match between a Republican President and moderator was simply not on the cards. This was simply an extraordinary spectacle, a landmark moment in American presidential politics, and one of the must-watch debates and all for the very worst reasons…

We already knew there was little love lost between the two candidates and COVID-19 provided a convenient excuse for them not to shake hands. Trump has spent the last couple of years trying to demonise one of the most moderate and collegiate veterans in US politics, while also encouraging a conspiracy theory that would make the man’s one remaining son the epitome of Washington corruption. Biden, in the meantime, has worked hard to overcome the perception that he’s the “Sleepy Joe” of right-wing punditry.

Yet, in the end, neither pre-prepared narrative mattered that much. However hostile we expected the debate to be, we probably imagined there would have been “debate”. Instead, we got Trump at his most aggressive, deliberately trying to throw Biden off his game. In fairness to him, his strategy sometimes worked. At times, Biden looked weary and struggled to inject energy into the maelstrom.

Yet there was also a more pronounced storyline that emerged and will probably shape many of the coming weeks. That narrative is the framing that the Biden team have been working to develop for weeks; that of Biden, the “Ordinary Joe” from Scranton PA, who understands the meaning of a wage packet that doesn’t cover a family’s outgoings. 

Trump, meanwhile, is the billionaire’s son, who managed to lose one fortune, make another in reality TV, and then, as The New York Times reported over the weekend, lose it again in bad investments, racking up staggering debts, while also allegedly fiddling his taxes. It bears emphasising that one of the defining moments of the evening came long before the debate, when Biden released his 2019 tax returns. He and his wife, Jill, paid nearly $300,000 in federal taxes last year compared to the $750 that Trump allegedly paid in 2015 and 2017. 

Yet even laying out these points is to paint detail into the night that simply wasn’t there. The debate was notionally structured into six parts. We began with the Supreme Court, COVID-19, the Economy, and the problem with race in America, and finished with the records of the two candidates in government and the integrity of the November election. Producing a deep dive into policy from those segments, however, would prove pointless. There was just lots of shouting from Trump, throwing out his catch phrases “radical left” and “lying Hillary”, as well as the crazy conspiracy theories doing the rounds on the far right, hoping that something might stick in the viewer’s mind. 

Taking about violence in America, Trump was asked to de-escalate tensions around the election and to send a message out to the Proud Boys, a far right group engaged in political violence, but even here he only said “stand back, stand by”. It was more a call to arms than an appeal for moderation. And that gets to the heart of the issue.

There were simply two visions of politics – and of America – on offer here. Trump didn’t prepare and Biden did; one approached the night through the force of his personality, the other through the force of marshalled facts and proposals. One played celebrity, the other old-fashioned civics. One tried to create the reality to shape his ego, the other struggled to impose his ego on a reality that was far beyond what any traditional politician would have understood by the term “debate”. 

Trump won the night if by “won” we mean defined the nature of the event. Trump wanted and achieved chaos, bringing the debate down to the level where his lack of detail wouldn’t matter as much as his ability to swing a fist in a tight space. In the very first segment, Trump, interrupted both Biden and Wallace – it was clearly a deliberate policy. Strength slipped into rudeness leading Wallace to remind the President that “I am the moderator of this debate.” 

Trump responded. “I guess I’m debating you not him but that’s no surprise”.

That was the entire tone for the evening. Trump’s deployed his wild haymakers in an attempt to break Biden’s rhythm. Sometimes it worked – Biden struggled to make a few points clearly – but most of the time it worked against the President. It meant that the few moments of control and focus stood out and those moments only came from the Democrat. Biden’s effective use of the camera produced the most compelling moments of the evening, should there have been anybody in America who is still undecided. Trump spent the evening scowling at Biden but Biden spent much of his time looking straight into American living rooms. That contrast was striking.

How this plays out in those living rooms will be fiercely contested in the coming days. Trump loyalists will claim it was Biden who did all the interrupting but even Chris Wallace had to point out to the President that he was the candidate mainly breaking the rules. Democrats, meanwhile, will say Biden was strong when, in truth, he looked a little overwhelmed by the storm breaking against him. He was probably not the only one. It was an exhausting hour and forty minutes. 

Will Americans like what they see? Some might. Some will delight in the anti-politics on show, even the crude attacks the President launched against Biden. “You mention ‘Smart’?” he asked at one point before launching into a teardown of Biden’s academic record. His finish — “Don’t ever use the word ‘smart’ with me” – was arrogant, condescending, and one of the low moments for Trump.

Yet perhaps his base will appreciate it. On the other hand, it was another moment when Trump seemed deaf to his own tone or the political operation being run against him. He played to the narrative of the elite attacking the ordinary. That’s a message that works for Biden.

Before tonight, the reasonable assumption was that the debate would not move a needle that has been stuck for months if not a year. Perhaps it still won’t change that much but Trump was so monstrously out of control here that it’s hard to believe that Biden doesn’t emerge a clear winner. The polls already suggest that a majority of Americans are already tired of a President constantly turned up to 10. It’s hard to see how they’d think it an improvement when – heavy-metal Spinal Tap-style – he’s turned all the way up to 11.