A consensus has formed around the idea that Donald Trump will most likely win re-election as President in 2020. It is almost a tradition that sitting Presidents are given the chance by American voters to spend the full eight years in the White House. George H.W. Bush, who died ten days ago and who was commemorated in such style, was the last occupant of the office to be turfed out after a single term. A third party candidate, Ross Perot, split the vote, and Democrat Bill Clinton triumphed in 1992. Before that Jimmy Carter only lasted four years, following a miserable spell in power that was ended by Ronald Reagan in 1980.

Trump starts with the advantage of incumbency; Mueller has a lot but none of it brings down a President; although it is early in the cycle, the Democrats have a long list of challengers but no-one yet looks strong enough; Trump’s base hates the left and is motivated by winning the culture war against political correctness; and above all the US economy is strong.

So Trump, more than likely, wins.