UK joins vast NATO exercise seeking to deter growing Russian threat

“The foundations of the world order are being shaken to their core”, warned Grant Shapps, as he announced the biggest deployment of British troops to NATO for 40 years.

Speaking at Lancaster House, the Defence Secretary confirmed that the UK will send 20,000 military personnel to take part in one of the alliance’s largest military exercises since the Cold War. They will be staged during the first half of this year in Germany, Poland and the three Baltic states.

While Shapps made mention of multiple “aggressors” – Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea – he made it clear that the planned exercises are in large part practice for repelling any invasion from the “menace” that is Vladimir Putin. 

He seemed keen to remind his audience that, while the world is distracted by the crisis in the Middle East, the threat posed by Moscow is increasing.

Britain is not the only country issuing such warnings. Last week, Carl-Oskar Bohlin, the Minister for Civil Defence of Sweden – a nation poised to join NATO by July – warned that, after 210 years of peace, conflict is coming: ”There could be war in Sweden.”

“The world is facing a security outlook with greater risks than at any time since the end of the Second World War,” Bohlin added. There was criticism from opposition parties who accuse the government of alarmism. But the understandable aim is to encourage Swedish citizens to adjust psychologically and prepare for a transformed environment.

What is the nature of the threat? Doesn’t Putin have enough on his blood-soaked hands without threatening other European countries beyond Ukraine?

As Russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine approaches its second anniversary, combined losses on both sides have surpassed half a million soldiers dead and wounded, plus a further 28,500 Ukrainian civilians. 

At sea, Kyiv has recorded some successes, destroying 20 per cent of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. But on land, Ukrainian forces are now on the defensive along much of their 1000 km frontline.

While Sunak unveiled a further £2.5bn support package for Ukraine on a surprise trip to Kyiv late last week, the undercurrents of war fatigue are building still. 

Aside from the very real possibility of Trump – a Putin admirer – returning to the Oval Office this year, another concern for Kyiv will be the fact that Budapest takes over the rotating EU presidency for six months in July. Hungary’s leader, Viktor Orbán, has already blocked a €50 billion EU aid package for Ukraine. 

Given the scale of losses endured on both sides, some say it’s time to push for negotiations to end the Russia-Ukraine war. And that even if this did involve making concessions to Putin, Moscow’s heavy military casualties mean Putin will hardly feel emboldened to start a war against NATO. 

This overlooks the reality that the timeframe has shortened and the likelihood that a Russian war with NATO would likely take on very different form from Cold War-era notions of a mass invasion. A number of military analysts predict that, rather than attempting to defeat NATO in a prolonged ground war similar to what is unfolding in Ukraine, Putin would rely heavily on psychological tactics and stoking fear of escalation. 

Moscow could, for instance, strike critical civilian infrastructure in NATO countries early on, then attempt to coerce the alliance into submission by signalling the ability to inflict progressively larger amounts of damage. Threats of nuclear escalation would feature heavily too. 

This type of warfare would in many respects become a risk-taking competition, meaning Moscow could prove a menacing force without having to match NATO’s conventional military power. It could try to take out power and water infrastructure using cyber attacks, or use limited missile attacks, or steal territory just over its border to test the West.

For these reasons, Swedish warnings that the West and its populations need to be ready are sensible. In the next few years it is perfectly conceivable that Putin will break the 75-year-old taboo against waging war on NATO. It is not alarmist to make preparations and hope to deter Russia from another disastrous venture.

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