Ukraine’s top general inadvertently stokes conflict fatigue

Ukraine’s Commander in Chief of Armed Forces knows a thing or two about strategy. However, Gen.Valery Zaluzhnyy may have made a strategic blunder.

His mistake was advancing into the political arena whilst commenting on what perhaps he thought was only a military matter. In an interview with The Economist, the general said the Ukraine/Russia war was at a stalemate. The point he was making was that without an urgent boost in state-of-the-art weapons from allies, “there will most likely be no deep and beautiful breakthrough”. However, his comments come at a time when Ukraine’s counter offensive is seen not to have succeeded, and international political support for the “as long as it takes” approach to arming and funding Ukraine is dwindling.

Zaluzhnyy’s comments were designed to persuade Ukraine’s friends, especially the Americans, to up military assistance to his forces, but his use of the word “stalemate” made the headlines and has been seized upon by Republicans who believe it’s time for a rethink. For example, Sen. Josh Hawley said “That naturally raises the question: What exactly is our endgame strategy? What’s the plan here? I don’t think they have a plan.” Sen. J.D. Vance used it to take aim at the general’s boss –“Zelensky’s war aims are not consistent with reality, and you have some of his inner circle pushing back. This was always going to end with Russia controlling some Ukrainian territory and a negotiated settlement. I’ve been saying it for a year. It was obvious to anybody who paid attention to realities on the ground.”

The latest request from Kyiv to Washington for military aid is for $45 billion, an amount it would burn through in about a year. To put that into perspective, the most modern of America’s Aircraft Carriers, the USS Gerald R. Ford, cost roughly $13 billion and is expected to be in service until the 2070s. Kyiv wants another $16 billion to pay government and military salaries, including pensions.

These facts and figures are used as ammunition among those arguing for a reduction or even termination in aid to Ukraine. Such views have yet to win the day in Congress but the cracks which began to appear a few months ago are widening both in the US and Europe. Slovakia has said it will no longer provide weapons, Poland has reduced the weapons flow, and Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni was caught in a prank call saying ““I see that there is a lot of fatigue….We are near the moment in which everybody understands that we need a way out”. She warned the war could “last many years if we don’t try to find some solutions.” 

The Ukrainians fear that if enough of the outside world believes stalemate is locked in for the foreseeable future, then Kyiv will be pressured into negotiations with Russia leading to the permanent loss of Ukrainian territory.

The Zaluzhnyy remarks also revealed fissures in Ukrainian unity in the highest echelons. Zelensky responded with a plea to the country not to “drown in infighting”. Directly addressing the “stalemate” remark he said, “Everyone is tired and there are different opinions,” but a presidential aide went much further telling Ukrainian TV that comments such as Zaluzhnyy’s “eases the work” of the Kremlin.

Two days after Zaluzhnyy’s Economist interview, the president removed Gen. Viktor Khorenko from his position as head of Ukraine’s special forces. No reason was given and Khorenko said Zaluzhnyy, whom he knows well, “could not explain this to me”. This led to speculation, unproven, that he was fired as a warning to Zaluzhnyy.

Whatever the reason, it has darkened the national mood which is already sombre due to the failure of the counter offensive to achieve a breakthrough. After five months of fierce fighting, amid huge losses on both sides, Ukrainian forces have advanced about 10 miles. There is also an expectation that Russia will now use many of the hundreds of thousands of missiles North Korea has sent it to once again target Ukraine’s energy infrastructure to ensure the population remains cold and miserable during the winter months.

This is why Zelensky continues to call for more long-range missiles, drones, and perhaps most importantly, advanced fighter jets. These, it is argued, will help push Russian forces back across the border. This is the very argument that General Zaluzhnyy was making when he said  “Ukraine’s armed forces need key military capabilities and technologies to break out of this kind of war.”

Ukraine still has friends, and the U.S will probably once again put its hand into its deep pockets. President Biden seems to agree with the big geopolitical picture painted by former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo who said last week: “The outcome of this war will have a direct impact on US national security. Should Putin prevail—whether on the battlefield or through a war of attrition that leads to ill-conceived diplomacy—the war would be felt well beyond Ukraine’s borders, including by strengthening a Russia-China-Iran alliance that aims to weaken the US and our allies across the globe.”

This “Axis of Authoritarians” argument is strong, many leaders around the world buy into it, but munitions stocks are dwindling, economies are struggling, and the “conflict fatigue” clock is ticking. Zaluzhnyy’s “stalemate” comment may make it tick more quickly.

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