Under fire Number 10 strives to agree a deal with Covid Tory rebel MPs

Number 10 and the government chief whip Mark Spencer moved today to try to shut down the Tory rebellion on Covid restrictions.

Backbenchers, led by Sir Graham Brady, the chair of the powerful 1922 Committee, are suspicious of the government’s in-house scientific advice and angry about curtailments to civil liberties. Leading Tory rebel Steve Baker MP today likened Boris Johnson to Theoden from Lord of the Rings. “The king is under the spell of his advisers, and he has to be woken up from that spell,” said Baker on Times Radio. “When he wakes from that spell, joy comes to pass in the kingdom.”

More than 40 Conservative MPs – enough to defeat the government, that has am 80-seat majority – are supporting an attempt to restrict Downing Street’s ability to impose new coronavirus regulations. They intend to vote for an amendment to the Coronavirus Act, due to be renewed this week, which would subject coronavirus restrictions to full parliamentary scrutiny before they are implemented. There is some doubt over whether the Speaker will call their amendment on Wednesday.

Downing Street is now expected to meet backbenchers’ demands before an embarrassing vote is held. It would involve the Commons receiving assurances of greater consultation on Covid rules and more time for debate.

Baker tweeted this afternoon: “Government Chief Whip Mark Spencer kindly invited a number of us to meet him at 16:30 with Secretary of State Matt Hancock and Commons Leader Jacob Rees Mogg. I’m happy to report it was a cordial and constructive meeting. I hope and expect we will reach a satisfactory agreement.”

Regardless of the efforts of the Tory rebels, restrictions are tightening this week. People across England will now be legally required to self-isolate if they are contacted by the test and trace service, with the police given permission to carry out spot-checks and to issue fines as high as £10,000. And from this evening, half of Wales’ 22 local authorities will be under local restrictions, after the Welsh government announced that three more counties would be placed under lockdown. Wales’ two largest cities, Swansea and Cardiff, also went into lockdown last night.

The escalation sets the stage for a week in which the UK government is expected to take a more draconian stance on coronavirus despite that rebellion in the Conservative parliamentary party.

Government ministers are reportedly preparing for an emergency “social lockdown” to be imposed on London and parts of the North as early as this week. It would see all pubs and restaurants closed for a fortnight and people banned from visiting each other’s homes. Those who work in Covid-secure offices would still be encouraged to commute, but, as one Conservative parliamentary aide told Reaction: “It’s mad to think someone would go into an office if they can’t get coffee or lunch or drinks.”

The pressure for tougher measures follows concerns that neither the Rule of Six nor the 10pm curfew have done enough to curb the rise in cases. Professor Susan Michie, the director of UCL Centre for Behaviour Change, has even claimed the curfew policy is doing more harm than good.

Referencing social media videos of people being pressed together in the streets and on public transport at 10pm, Professor Michie said: “These consequences of the curfew undermine the gains saved by shortening the latter part of the evening and may even be counterproductive. The measure is another example of a restriction brought in without a coherent strategy and without sufficient consultation with relevant experts and communities.”

Boris Johnson advocated for a two-week “circuit-breaker” national lockdown last week, but was reportedly overruled by Chancellor Rishi Sunak who it is suggested made the issue a potential resigning matter because of the damage it would cause to the economy.

As cases have continued to rise, the Prime Minister is said to feel vindicated and believes that drastic action is now warranted. He is “on the same page as Alastair Campbell,” a Tory aide said. “He will reach for the nuclear button because he’s traumatised by what happened in March… Dom [Cummings] is discombobulated, and [Chris] Whitty and [Patrick] Vallance don’t really give a crap about the economy.”

Look out for Boris Johnson addressing the nation again in the coming days, speaking in a mournful tone while announcing drastic changes to day-to-day life in the capital city and elsewhere. But this time the science and the politics of a lockdown strategy will be more vigorously contested. The Prime Minister and his advisers will no longer have the benefit of the doubt on their own backbenches and beyond.