The Union between England and Scotland can be saved

To Twickenham this weekend, to see Scotland take on England in the Calcutta Cup that is – for Scotland fans – the central fixture in the RBS 6 Nations. Scottish over-optimism is this year running at record levels, which is saying something, and the hope (among Scottish rugby fans) is of a victory against England at Twickenham for the first time since Nineteen Canteen, that is a very long time ago. Such is the excitement and anticipation that all seems set for a heroic, valiant, glorious defeat, of Scotland.

Still, no matter what the result, and it is always a wonderful day out, it should be acknowledged that the revival of Scotland’s national rugby team in the last five years is a wonder to behold. For those of us who sat through the drubbings and disappointments for year after year, when Scottish players seemed at times incapable of completing even simple tasks like passing the ball, the transformation under a new generation of players and leaders is a source of national pride.

Another joy of the Calcutta Cup, as a Unionist Scot, is that it offers a rare opportunity to experience a moment of Scottish unity and shared patriotism. In recent decades Scotland has largely replaced its old divisions that ran along sectarian and class lines, with a split on constitutional affairs that has become bitter to a depressing extent. The referendum of 2014 was hailed as a civic and joyous festival of democracy by the SNP’s then leader Alex Salmond. His was a delusional claim. Poison was put in the blood stream that year. The referendum was horrible because it divided families and worsened a climate of resentment.

At a Calcutta Cup politics goes out the window for eighty minutes, and Unionists and Nationalists unite in hoping to defeat the mighty English. Occasionally it happens.

The English view, in my experience, is quite different. I speak as a Scot who likes England a lot. I spent much of my childhood in England, before returning to Paisley aged 14. Then in 2006 I fled the Nationalist terror with a move to London.

I observe that the English, usually with a wry smile, find the Scots very easy to wind-up because they know that the Scots care about beating and annoying the English at sport more than the other way round. England’s true sporting rivals are Germany (for football, where England get crushed) and Australia (for rugby and cricket). The English like leathering the jocks because they find it funny and we jocks hate it. I stress that this is only sport, but it would be a surprise if these feelings did not colour how some people on both sides of the border think of each other when it comes to nationhood, statecraft and economics.

This complex relationship stretching back centuries is now headed for a reckoning off the rugby pitch.

A second referendum on Scottish independence is regarded as somewhere between likely and inevitable. Next week, at the SNP conference, the party leader and First Minister of the devolved administration in Edinburgh, is expected to signal that she wants the right to call such a vote. The decision on whether to allow such a vote does not lie with Nicola Sturgeon, however. It is reserved to Westminster and the Tory government (or Toreeeee government, in SNP MP speak) and Theresa May can say no.

It is not that simple, however.

Saying no – on the grounds that there is no demand for it now from Scots – only gets May so far. The SNP intention will be to push and shout so much that in time even moderate Scottish opinion comes to resent being turned down by an English Tory (Toreee) and demand grows.

In pushing, Nicola Sturgeon’s team are terrified of one thought, and that is they do not want to be the next Gordon Brown, by which I mean they do not want to make the mistake he made as Prime Minister in 2007 of failing to take his opportunity. In his case that was the failure to call a general election he might have won. In their case they fear the chance being passed up before they go backwards in the next Holyrood election, leaving them in the early 2020s contemplating what might have been.

The SNP has several advantages. On both sides of the border many Unionists in politics and the media are in a gloomy state. The SNP is well-organised and resourced, with a state of the art operation on the ground. The Scottish Labour party is in ruins (despite the magnificent performance of the party’s leader Kezia Dugdale on BBC Question Time again the SNP this week). The Nationalists have money and firepower. They are confident.

Increasingly the fear is that Unionists have given up. Do voters in England care any more? Do Unionists in Scotland care as much as they used to? A weariness has set in. A leading Scottish PR man was astonished recently at a dinner in London with a large group of Tory MPs to be told that that they no longer give a stuff.

But if you do care about the Union, do not despair.

Theresa May has timing on her side, and timing will matter. The Tory position is that there should not be a referendum because of a lack of voter demand, yet if demand grows May can appeal to reasonable people who outnumber Nationalist fanatics.

May can legitimately say something like the following:

“There doesn’t seem to be much of a call for this and we have the Brexit negotiations to get on with. Once that is done, if there is demand of course there must be a Scottish referendum. Scottish voters must be given a chance to see what they think of a deal with the EU that is not done yet.”

That would mean it cannot happen – if it happens – until autumn 2019 at the earliest.

Meanwhile, the Scottish Tories under Ruth Davidson’s exciting leadership are reviving, and the established view that a Tory could never lead the fight against independence could look out of date in 18 months time. A veteran Nat election planner acknowledges that Labour voters over 50 are switching direct to Davidson’s Tories, as they are to May in the north of England. Scottish youngsters have gone to the SNP already. A referendum, if it comes, then becomes a heroic battle over turnout.

While there is concern about the as yet uninspiring non-party pro-Union campaign, Scotland in Union, there is an answer. Stop moaning, Unionists. Join up and take it over. Or start something else. Get organising.

And then there is the economy. The attempts by SNP modernisers this week to present a realistic assessment of the prospects of an independent Scotland, trying to adjust party policy in line with reality, have provoked outrage in a party that will not accept that voters need sensible answers on what the currency will be and more than desperate reliance on a pile of non-existent magic money from North Sea oil. Scotland’s biggest export market (64%) is the rest of the UK too. It dwarfs trade with the EU.

A poll this week suggested that voters are now 50-50 on leaving the UK, but other polls suggest different. There are plenty of scunnered voters, fed up of the SNP’s monomania, who can be rallied.

The Union is far from done. Don’t let the Nats wear you down with the idea that independence is inevitable.