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Most of you will remember how in 1997, in the leadup to the creation of the Scottish Parliament, we were told by Tony Blair that it was devolution that would ensure the survival of the United Kingdom. The argument was, give them the dignity of their own, tartan assembly, with control over local issues, and the Scots would be only too happy to accept the sovereignty of Westminster in respect of the important things – foreign policy, defence, national security, taxation, the NHS and, of course, Europe.
So how did that work out? Nationalism in Scotland quickly became the preferred option of close to half the population, with more flocking to the Saltire with each passing year. The 2014 referendum on independence was characterised by the Conservatives in particular as a great victory for the Union that would settle the issue for a generation at least. The reality was that 45 per cent of the electorate declared themselves in favour of a break with England – and this after a No campaign in which the Tories were joined by Labour and the Liberal Democrats, the economy was strong and the Brexit referendum had yet to be confirmed.
Today, the situation is very different. In 2016, Scotland voted to remain in the EU by an impressive 62 per cent, against 38 per cent for Leave. First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, whose European identity runs in parallel to her Scottishness, has pointed out, not unreasonably, that the 2014 result had to be seen against a background of continued EU membership and that the prospect of a hard, No-Deal Brexit that cuts Edinburgh off from its beloved Brussels has completely changed the political landscape.
As you would expect, Boris Johnson is having none of this. The PM’s view is that all Scotland needs is a bit of Anglophile oomph, which he will provide during his visit today north of the border on the first leg of his UK grand tour. It is as yet unknown what Project Fearless, the Government’s £100 million campaign to prepare the country for No Deal, will have to say about Scotland – quite a lot, I would guess, about fisheries, not so much about jobs or farm subsidies. What we can be reasonably sure of is that Johnson will run into sustained flak from the SNP and its supporters, backed by Labour and the Lib Dems. If he is incautious enough to venture out into Edinburgh’s Royal Mile, he could well find himself in the same situation as Nigel Farage, who was ignominiously sent on his way during a visit in 2013.
I do not pretend to be an authority on the voting habits or private predilections of the Scottish people. I can, however, recognise a trend when I see one, and it seems to me that a second independence referendum, if held within two years, say, of a fraught, high-cost Brexit, would result in victory for the SNP.
The detail of independence would, naturally, be bedevilled by arguments over the currency, the division of the spoils, trading arrangements and the no-doubt rapid run-down of the Westminster subvention. Down the road, painful negotiations would have to be opened concerning the international frontier that would take shape on the first day of Scotland’s return to the European Union.
During the 2014 campaign, it was said, as much by Brussels as by London, that Scotland would have to wait in line for as long as seven, years before opening talks on re-accession. But that, I believe, was in the context of the UK as a leading EU member state. With Britain a third country, reduced in both size and status, the Scots would be grandfathered in, adopting both the euro and the Schengen Accord on open borders.
Across the North Channel, meanwhile, a very different set of circumstances has arisen that over the next five-to-seven years could lead to Northern Ireland voting to leave the UK and join the Irish Republic. At this point, one imagines, even the Welsh might be persuaded to consider their position, leaving England much as it was under Edward the Confessor, if somewhat less threatened by the Danes.
The facts of the Northern Ireland case do not, as things stand, add up to an argument for the Union. The Catholic/Nationalist electorate is poised to overtake that of Protestant/Unionists. At the same time, as the Republic has developed into one of the most prosperous and stable of Europe’s smaller states, quite a few younger Protestants have begun to turn away from London and towards Dublin, where their influence would be considerably greater. Add to that mix the economic fall-out from a No-Deal Brexit that is expected to hit NI with particular force, plus the outrage that would accompany the re-emergence of a functioning Irish border, and you have all the makings of a nationalist revolt.
Were a border poll were to be held next month, Unionism would prevail. The number of Protestants prepared to endorse a United Ireland would probably be outweighed by the number of older Catholics anxious about their pensions and access to the NHS. But move the referendum forward a couple or three years to a time when the pound has slumped below both the dollar and the euro, farmers are struggling and the economy has lost 10,000 jobs and it could be a very different story. If it is any indication of the direction of travel, the DUP last time out won only 36 per cent of the vote and more than a quarter of the Protestant population – among them, it is said, Ian Paisley Jr – are already said to hold Irish passports.
There are bound to be hold-outs, mainly the elderly and the rough-trade end of the loyalist spectrum. Peace might well – as now – come dropping slow. But if Ian Paisley’s widow and the head of the Orange Order are prepared to accept unity, the rest would surely follow. Tipping the balance, I suspect, would be the multi-billion-euro post-Brexit Marshall Plan for the Republic, funded by the 26, that according to Brussels is a realistic prospect.
All that would then be required would be the approval of southern voters. Some would object. Northerners are not universally popular on the softer side of the Border, and there would be those who would resent the intrusion into their midst of an often resentful minority made up in part of Orangemen, loyalist bully-boys and various religious nutters.
But the Constitution is the Constitution, and there is not a party in the Republic that does not hold the achievement of national unity as a core conviction. All the indications are that in the right circumstances, with financial assistance from London and Washington, as well as the EU, the process need not be accompanied by mayhem. If East Germany could be re-engineered into the German federation within 12 months of the fall of the Berlin Wall, why would the reunification of Ireland – a country that this year alone is expected to absorb some 90,000 immigrants – be any different?
Yet nothing is certain, either in Scotland or Ireland. The old order may prove more durable than it appears. Perhaps Boris Johnson, as the Sun King, will turn the tide and persuade his Celtic brethren that the United Kingdom is their natural long-term home. Or will the Scots send him home tae think again?
Stop press … Johnson was greeted by a jeering crowd of some 200 SNP supporters as he visited Nicola Sturgeon at her official residence, Bute House, in Edinburgh’s Charlotte Square. After a short stay, during which he denied that a No Deal Brexit was his primary objective, he left by a rear entrance, thus avoiding demonstrators.
The PM also found time to meet with Ruth Davidson, the Tory leader in Scotland, who is strongly opposed to No Deal. Having sought to reassure her that he would seek a deal with Brussels if the EU would only drop its insistence on the Irish backstop, he promised to do all in his power to assist her in her bid, next time round, to replace Ms Sturgeon as First Minister.
Speaking afterwards, Mr Johnson said that those who, like Ian Blackford, the SNP leader at Westminster, dubbed him the last prime minister of the UK, were “grossly underestimating” the strength of the current arrangement.
“Our union is the most successful political and economic union in history,” he said. “We are a global brand and together we are safer, stronger and more prosperous. As we prepare for our bright future after Brexit, it’s vital we renew the ties that bind our United Kingdom.”
And so on to Cardiff and Belfast.
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Iain Martin and the team make sense of the news, providing commentary and analysis on the stories that matter in politics, geopolitics, economics and culture.