After a brief interlude of tranquillity brought about by Rishi Sunak’s relatively capable, technocratically safe hands, the Tories have descended into chaos once more.
The recent soap opera has led to high-profile resignations from Boris Johnson, Nadine Dorries and Nigel Adams, triggering three by-elections. But although YouGov’s most recent voting intention polling looks bleak for the incumbent party, Labour should not count its chickens.
Lib Dem leader Ed Davey has already been out leafleting in Dorries’ seat of Mid Bedfordshire and thinks he has a pretty good chance of victory. It should be noted that, unlike Johnson and Adams, Dorries is yet to officially stand down which has slowed Sunak’s preparations for defending the seat. But it seems clear that the Lib Dems will not step aside for Labour.
In Uxbridge and South Ruislip, Labour sent Shabana Mahmood, its campaigns coordinator, and Jonathan Ashworth, shadow work and pensions secretary, to start campaigning less than a day after Johnson’s resignation. Former charity worker Danny Beales is their man for the candidacy and it looks like Labour will throw the kitchen sink at it.
Britain Predicts polling places Beales ahead in the polls by 11 points but Lord Ashcroft’s polling from just before Johnson resigned put him clearly in the lead. While a lot has changed over a weekend and many voters who were fond of Boris may switch in protest, incumbency could guard against a complete Tory wipeout. Ultimately, a vote for Beales is a vote for Starmer, and Sir Keir’s popularity is nothing to write home about.
In Selby and Ainsty, the outgoing Adams has attempted to play both sides. Johnson’s ally was full of praise for his friend: “Boris deserves our thanks and respect for getting the country through the pandemic… He saved Brexit from attempts to thwart it. And following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, he helped secure a coalition of major nations who are backing Ukraine against Putin’s tyranny.”
And yet, even in the face of Boris’ “mistreatment”, Adams insisted that he “remain[s] committed” to the party: “I am looking also forward to helping our excellent new candidate Michael Naughton in the by-election and at the General Election.”
With a majority of over 20,000, this amicable transition may leave Selby and Ainsty as safe a seat as it ever was.
All of which is to say, despite Tory chaos in the party and at the last local elections, Labour can take nothing for granted.
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