US election 2020: Biden storms ahead to the nomination

With the latest Democrat primary results in, Joe Biden looks to have sown up his party’s nomination just as coronavirus’ disruptions start to take their toll. While primary elections still went ahead in Florida, Arizona, and Illinois on Tuesday, primary voting was abruptly cancelled in Ohio and is being resecheduled. Other states look set to follow suit.

Still, with almost all the votes counted Joe Biden has racked up a substantial lead over Bernie Sanders. Their delegate totals now stand respectively at 1,147 and 861, with 1,991 needed for a majority.

Florida was Biden’s biggest triumph of the night. With 219 delegates up for grabs Biden won 130 of them with 61.9% of the vote trouncing Sanders’ anaemic 22.8% and 48 delegates. In Arizona, with 88% of the votes counted, Biden has accrued 43.6% of the vote and 26 delegates to Sanders’ 31.6% and 22 delegates. Finally, in Illinois Biden had another blowout winning 59.1% of the vote and 93 delegates to Sanders’ 36.1% and 46 delegates.

The sheer scale of Biden’s landslide in Florida can be partially attributed to Sanders’ underperformance with the state’s many Latino voters. While Sanders has substantial Latino support in other states it seems, unsurprisingly, that the state’s many Cuban-Americans did not take kindly to Sander’s comments about Castro’s good points.

Similarly, Arizona swinging for Biden is not a shock. While the state is on the wish list of the Democratic Party in the general election it has long been a Republican bastion and its one Democratic Senator, Kyrsten Sinema, is one of the most conservative figures in the party.

Finally, in Illinois Biden’s large margin of victory over Sanders, as compared to Clinton’s narrow one in 2016, shows the strength of his position generally.

Indeed, while state-level factors were at play these results reflect Sander’s overall sag in the polls. With most of the Democratic party coalescing behind Biden, FiveThiryEight puts Sander’s polling average at just 34% nationally, to Biden’s 54%. With Biden’s lead increasingly seeming insurmountable the question is now whether Sanders will drop out, or repeat his 2016 performance and fight to the bitter end in order to try to extract more concessions.

Whatever Sanders’ decision the coronavirus pandemic will be the vital factor. The sense of crisis could conceivably encourage him to drop out in the name of unity, or convince him to continue his campaign hoping his central message of healthcare will propel an improbable surge in the context of the pandemic.

If Sanders does continue, both candidates will have to contend with the restrictions imposed by coronavirus. Both have already cancelled all their rallies in a bid to limit the spread, and voters stayed away from the polls yesterday due to worries about infection. While a surge in postal voting made up some of the difference, turnout was lower than in 2016 in Florida and Illinois.

So far there has been little indication of Sanders’ thoughts. He has yet to make a statement on the night’s results. When he spoke via livestream on Tuesday evening before the results came out he focused almost entirely on the measures necessary to cushion the impact of coronavirus.

Here in typically ambitious style Sanders outdid all other proposals on economic aid, by proposing a monthly $2000 payment to every US household for the duration of the crisis, unemployment insurance up to 100% with a cap at $75,000, a moratorium on evictions and utility shutoffs, and a waiver on all student loan payments. He also suggested stringent conditions should be imposed on any company requiring a government bailout including a ban of stock buybacks and executive bonuses.

His tone makes an interesting contrast with the address Biden made following his primary victories. Biden, despite having released his own coronavirus plan earlier this week, spoke of the need for sympathy and solidarity as he streamed his address from his house. Comparing the crisis to a war he urged people to “put politics aside and work together as Americans”.

When he did address the primary, he only briefly acknowledge the results before turning from national unity to party unity. He appealed directly to Sanders’ supporters praising their and the senator’s “remarkable passion and tenacity”, and assuring young voters backing Sanders “I hear you”. For Biden it seems clear that the primary is over – and he is already looking to the general election to come.