US election 2020: is there a credible Democrat candidate?

We are now a year out from the Republican Convention that will properly mark the start of the 2020 election campaign. By the time Trump is confirmed as the GOP’s choice, the Democrats should have already selected their nominee; their jamboree of televised handwringing beginning on 13 July and, hopefully, settling which of their battalion of nominees they consider has the best chance of winning the presidency.

Viewed from this end of the political season, anticipating that decision is almost impossible. Is there a standout candidate, showing the kind of pedigree necessary for the White House?

The short answer is “no”. Not yet.

The longer answer begins by noting that nearly all those running have enough experience to inherit the White House but that’s only because the current incumbent has established a new norm. If Donald Trump can be President (and, much to everybody’s surprise, not blow up the world in the process) then really, why not Bill De Blasio? Why not Andrew Yang? Why not Marianne Williamson? Well, okay, perhaps not Williamson, who this week blamed “powerful forces” for stopping her attending the third debate. Those “powerful forces” are the debate rules and the fact that she hasn’t fulfilled either of the two criteria (polling and donors) to allow her on the stage. If only these things were measured by cosmic love…

Yet nobody – not even Oprah’s spiritual advisor – embarks on the race for the White House with a record of achievement that makes them eminently qualified for the job of Most Powerful Person on the Planet. “Presidential pedigree” is a quality that only seems obvious in retrospect.

Bill Clinton, for example, is now remembered as “The Great Communicator” but, back when he first ran, he was the best answer to insomnia the Democrats had. His opening speech to the 1988 Democratic National Convention – he was endorsing Dukakis at the time – was widely ridiculed for its length and dullness. It was also in 1988 that we had Bush Snr, a somewhat dull but deeply establishment figure walking in the shadow of President Reagan. Yet even with the pedigree of a World War II hero, former CIA Director, Congressman, UN Ambassador, Chair of the GOP, and Vice President, George H.W. Bush still wasn’t seen as an obvious fit for the top job. He was condemned for lacking vision and was pushed and pulled by advisors into often contradictory positions, leading him to uncharacteristic postures, such as when he claimed to “tried to kick a little ass” in a debate with a female rival. It’s why the term “Bushism” was around long before George W. made it his own. Now remembered as a one-term president, broken by his famous “Read my lips: no new taxes” promise, Bush Snr was best characterised by a damning remark by Ann Richards, then Governor of Texas, who lamented about the Vice President, “Poor George, he can’t help it, he was born with a silver foot in his mouth”.

There really are, then, as many examples of flawed candidates as there as candidates. Even Obama, now remembered as the great hope for Democrats, wasn’t quite the shoe in. Tim Hames of The Times reflected the mood of 2007 when he noted that “Mr Obama […] a charming chap but too inexperienced and (for some) too black to assume the mantle of Washington and Lincoln.” In fact, you might argue that Donald Trump had a better pedigree, entering the race on the back of success as businessman and media star, but all that is asterisked with the usual caveats (bankruptcies, divorces, questionable business deals, Russia, hair).

Which leads us to the current field and the unsurprising sense that most candidates appear unsuited to the job they seek.

As a former Vice President, Joe Biden arguably comes with the best pedigree, but his campaign is struggling to move through the gears. Typical of Biden, he gave a tremendous speech in the wake of the El Paso shooting and then fluffed his lines the next day by making a shambolic mess of what should have been a simple point about talent. “Poor kids are just as bright and just as talented as white kids,” he said, to the sound of palms collectively slapping foreheads throughout his campaign team. Does he have what it would take to be President? Clearly, he does, but that presidency would be closer to Bush 2 than it would be to Obama 1. There would be gaffes alongside moments of relief when his common touch wins through. There would be serious politics too – though how could there not after the Apprentice has left the building? Biden will have to be pragmatic in order to tackle the gridlock which will persist if, as expected, the Democrats fail to take the Senate.

That’s where Elizabeth Warren is already striking the right notes. She has a reputation in the Senate for working across the aisle (in 2018, 42 of her 80 bills or resolutions had a cosponsor from another party) making her one of the most bipartisan politicians in Congress. She’s underlined her commitment to getting things done in a rather brilliant campaign that has done a lot to raise her profile (she is very meme-worthy), improve her polling, and establish her as a frontrunner. Does that make her the perfect candidate? Hardly. Good campaigning might not change the mind of voters who, prior to this race, considered her sanctimony a bit too rich. Her positioning on the left of the party also means she might gain ground in the nomination process but lose ground in the election. Biden, centrist and more pragmatic, still looks better suited to dealing with a hostile Senate.

Speaking of those too far to the left, Bernie Sanders has spent his life in and around politics, which either makes him highly experienced or too much of that establishment he claims to revile. The problem for Sanders is that the role of President is as symbolic as it is political. Indeed, the Trump presidency has highlighted the weakness of this model of government. Trump uses the symbolism of his role to deflect (and even demand that he is immune from) the forces of politics. Could Bernie make that transition from legislator to figurehead? Can voters imagine a President Bernie? It’s a cheap point but American politics is characterised by cheap points.

Which, of course, bring us to Kamala Harris… Harris had been doing well until she scored that cheap “bussing” point on Biden in the first debate. A less cheap point was scored on her in the second debate when Tulsi Gabbard attacked her record as California’s Attorney General. Harris will need a better defence than she offered then. She needs a better offence too. Hitting Biden about racism isn’t working.

If we’re talking pedigree, then one wonders how the mayor of on the fourth biggest city in Indiana (itself only the 17th biggest state by population) can make the step up to lead the nation? That remains Pete Buttigieg’s challenge before we get to questions about America electing a man of his youth and sexuality. He’s the single best debate performer.

Also currently in the next debate are Cory Booker, Beto O’Rourke, Amy Klobuchar, and Andrew Yang. As Senators, Booker and Klobuchar bring experience in Congress with them but neither has shown much to differentiate themselves. And, at this stage, they need exposure. They need to find that clever gimmick or attack line on a rival that brings media attention. O’Rourke was once his own gimmick but looks increasingly spent. Yang, on the other hand, is becoming increasingly relevant. His gimmick is social media. Leveraging the power of alternative media – podcasts, especially – he has managed to build a campaign that is outstripping more experienced operators. He made headlines a few days ago after publicly breaking down in tears when confronted by a mother whose child was killed in a gun accident. It was a properly moving moment and made headlines for the right reasons. But it also highlighted how so much of this mercurial and how little pedigree now matters.

From here, each candidate must endure the day to day travails of the mid-race as they try to build momentum heading toward the primaries in the spring. Pedigree doesn’t count. Now they just need to stretch their legs and prove their mettle. As George H.W. Bush once phrased it: “Zippity doo-dah. Now it’s off to the races”.