US election 2020: Joe Biden and the Democrats set their sights on Southern landslide

In 1968 Richard Nixon sensed an opportunity. For almost 100 years the Democrats’ heartlands had been the “Solid South”: sixteen or so states that could be relied on to vote for the party almost no matter what. This power, however, had rested on the back of white majorities that had ruthlessly disenfranchised black voters.

Following the Civil Rights Act passed by a Democratic president, Lyndon B. Johnson, these white voters became uncomfortable with their party’s new racial liberalism. In what was known as “the Southern Strategy” Nixon tacked conservative on race and the Solid South crumbled. Since then the South seems to have gone redder and redder until – maybe – now.

In the closing days of the campaign Joe Biden and the Democrats have mounted an aggressive push into the South. Yesterday Joe Biden swung through Georgia, just four days after his running-mate Kamala Harris campaigned in the state capital of Atlanta. The Biden campaign, which even by the US’s extravagant standards is swimming in money, has also poured funds into buying ads in southern states.

The move is inspired by polls which suggest Biden is in striking distance of victory in states like Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and even Texas. According the FiveThirtyEight polling average Biden leads Trump by 2.8%, 1.2%, and 2% in the first three states, and only trails by 1.3% in Texas.

Equally, Biden is likely hoping to buoy Democratic Senate candidates in the South. Victories here could determine whether or not he can gain the Senate majority he will desperately need to govern effectively.

In North Carolina, Democratic candidate Cal Cunningham seems to have a narrow lead over Republican candidate Thom Tillis. However, the race has narrowed after allegations of an affair served to compromise ex-Army Reservist Cunningham’s clean cut image. The Republicans have also poured funds into what has become the most expensive Senate race in history.

In Georgia, not one but two Senate seats are up for grabs with a special election thanks to the resignation of Republican Senator Johnny Isakson for health reasons last year. The regular election pits potential Democrat rising star Jon Ossof against Republican incumbent David Perdue, with polls showing a tight race. Meanwhile, in the special election, the lack of party primaries has benefitted Democrats, with Republican voters splitting between two candidates while the Democrats have thrown their unified weight behind Raphael Warnock. Warnock might just squeak 50% and avoid a second-round run-off against whichever Republican comes out on top.

Still, for some, Biden campaigning in the South might seem a hubristic repeat of Hillary Clinton’s mistakes in 2016. Eyeing up what she felt was an opportunity for a devastating national sweep she tried to win Southern “Sun Belt” states – only to fall short even as her own Midwestern “Blue Wall” crumbled with the loss of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

Indeed, the Democrats have a record of not quite making it in the South. A Democratic Texas, delivering 38 electoral college votes, would not so much be a nail in the Republican coffin as the dirt piled on top. It has also been prophesied for decades now but has failed to come to fruition. Successful efforts by Republicans to court the State’s growing Latino electorate, plus poor Democratic organisation, has kept them out.

In in 2018, the governorship of Georgia and a Texas Senate seat slipped through Democratic fingers by the narrowest of margins. In the latter Beto O’Rourke narrowed the gap to just 2.6% on election day, after his opponent Ted Cruz having won his previous election in 2012 by a comfortable 15.9%. In Georgia, Democrat Stacey Abrams lost by just 1.4%, and initially refused to concede, claiming that her opponent – who was also in charge of overseeing the election – had engaged in voter suppression.

Still, this time things might be different. These close misses are also a testimony to growing Democratic strength in the region. College-educated northerners, who skew heavily Democrat, have increasingly begun to settle in the South, attracted (ironically) by the low state taxes which come courtesy of Republican governments.

Sheer revulsion towards Trump has well-heeled suburbanites – particularly women – defecting from the Republicans in droves. In 2018, this, plus the highest turnout in 40 years, helped the Democrat’s flip suburban Congressional seats across the country, including in the South. Additionally, Biden has made big inroads among white voters, and even bigger ones among the large high-turnout block of 65+ voters is also buoying him across the country.

In encouraging signs for the Democrats, there are indications that they might be looking for a repeat of 2018 rather than 2016 this time around. Commentators are expecting high-turnout this year, and some are even predicting that it might reach levels not seen since 1908. Already, early voting has seen 66 million ballots cast – nearly half the total number cast in 2016. In Texas, the figure is an astonishing 87%. Where it is available, party registration data suggests that the Democrats have a lead among early voters by a heavy margin – 300,000 in Florida, and 315,000 in North Carolina.

Even more encouragingly for Biden and his party, turnout seems to be up among demographic groups that favour the Democrats. A poll by the Institute of Politics at Harvard’s Kennedy School found that 63% of 18-29 year-olds say they will definitely vote. By way of comparison – in 2008, when Obama rode to victory partly on the back of a surge in young voters, this figure was only 51.1%. In 2016, this dropped to 46.1%.

Black and Latino voters also seem to be turning up in greater numbers. A Pew poll found that 63% of black registered voters said they were “extremely motivated to vote” – just a shade lower than the 65% of black Americans who did vote in 2008. Among Latino voters, 54% say they are “extremely motivated to vote” – with only 48% having done so in 2016.

Still, Democratic victory is far from assured. Republican voter-enthusiasm, down in 2018, is also running hot this year. Pew Polls found that 71% of Republicans say they are “extremely motivated to vote”, just below the Democrats’ 72%. It is also expected that, on election day itself, Republican voters will be turning out in larger numbers than the Democrats, many of whom have already voted.

Furthermore, white voters who only have a high-school certificate form a group that Trump still has a substantial lead with, despite Biden narrowing the gap. This is a large demographic with a great deal of scope to increase turnout. In 2016, their turnout was relatively low, just 57.3%, but this was still enough to swamp Clinton in key states. A bigger surprise from this group of voters could yet swamp Biden as he sets his sights on a southern landslide.

Furthermore, Trump has made small inroads among black and Latino voters. Democrats still overwhelmingly lead among these groups nationally, but it does mean high-turnout among these voters might offer a smaller advantage than they hope. In an Electoral College system these ultra-fine margins could make all the difference.

Indeed, on a first impression, the huge number and party composition of voters who have already cast their ballots suggests that Biden has little room to improve in the coming days. Yet, his final push in these last dying days suggests his campaign is not taking anything for granted.

Joseph Rachman is reporting from Washington D.C.