The only surprise in an otherwise predictable Iowa caucus was that Nikki Haley didn’t beat Ron DeSantis into second place. So many headlines of the past two weeks were about her improved poll numbers and how she was beginning to emerge as the only meaningful rival to Donald Trump. That she didn’t do that might not be hugely significant in the long run, but much will now be read into this twist because, frankly, there’s very little else to read into the first result of the 2024 election campaign.
Donald Trump won and won handsomely, ending with more than 50% of the vote, and ensuring that nobody can question his standing. Anything less than 50% would have encouraged the anti-Trumpers who would point out that had the opposition coalesced around a single candidate, then Trump would not now be leading the nominations. But even that logic is flawed since candidates who drop out don’t give their vote to one candidate but will boost all those still in the race.
