The US Senate voted 55-45 on Tuesday evening against a proposal to dismiss Donald Trump’s second impeachment trial on the grounds that he could not be constitutionally impeached now that he was no longer president. Five Republican Senators – Mitt Romney, Lisa Murkowski, Pat Toomey, Ben Sasse, and Susan Collins – defected to join the 50 Democratic Senators who voted unanimously against the proposal.
The vote means Trump’s trial will go ahead – but looks to have little chance of securing a conviction. A successful impeachment conviction requires a 2/3 majority, 67 votes in favour. Given that there are only 50 Democrat Senators a total of 17 Republican Senators would need to turn on their former president for an impeachment conviction to happen. With all but five trying to avoid a trial altogether this seems extremely unlikely.
It seems that while some Republicans have been prepared to condemn Trump’s actions in the lead up to the storming of Capitol Hill by a mob of his supporters – the event for which he now stands impeached a second time, for inciting insurrection – most seem prepared to offer only words in the hope of moving on. Notably, Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnnell voted to dismiss the trial, despite just last week stating: “They [ the mob] were provoked by the president and other powerful people, and they tried to use fear and violence to stop a specific proceeding of the first branch of the federal government”.
The reluctance to take any concrete action against Trump on the part of most Republicans, even after he has left office, likely stems from his continued popularity with the party base. A recent poll by Monmouth University found that while 56% of Americans approved of Trump’s second impeachment just 13% of Republicans did. Meanwhile, conspiracy theories about the events on January are percolating through the party. The Oregon State Republican Party even published a statement claiming the insurrection had been a “false flag operation” designed to discredit Trump and the Republicans, and compared it to the Reichstag Fire (the arson attack which helped sweep the Nazis to power leading many to suspect their involvement in it).
Given the continued loyalty of many party members to Trump it seems Republican legislators remain wary of crossing him. Looking insufficiently loyal to Trump is a good way to invite a primary challenge – with money already being raised to try oust the 10 Republican members of the House of Representatives who voted to impeach Trump. Rumour also has it that Trump has threatened to found a third party – something which would split the Republican vote devastating its electoral prospects. A “MAGA Patriot Party” has been founded in Texas. Trump’s campaign has distanced itself from it for now – but the threat remains.
