Varadkar’s Brexit election could backfire

After a number of false starts, the Republic of Ireland is in the middle of its “Brexit election” campaign and commentators are nearly as reluctant to predict the outcome as they were before Britain’s pre-Christmas poll.

Since May 2016, Leo Varadkar has led a minority government made up of his party, Fine Gael, and a number of independent members of parliament, or TDs. Its survival depended on a “confidence and supply” agreement with Fine Gael’s main rival, Fianna Fail, so the administration lasted considerably longer than many pundits expected.

The Republic’s prime minister might have called an election in December 2017 or early 2018, when he was perceived to have manoeuvred Britain into accepting a “backstop” that meant seamless trade was expected to flow across the Irish land border. Or he could have chosen a date the following spring, after supporting a successful referendum campaign for abortion reform that was portrayed as a symbol of Ireland’s emergence as a modern, progressive nation.

On both occasions, the Taoiseach seemed to dither, before announcing last week that a poll will be held on February 8th.

Fine Gael strategists must have felt that Varadkar was running out of chances to pick a favourable date for the election. Another pre-Christmas Brexit deal, which apparently confirmed that customs checks will take place at Irish Sea ports rather than the land border, and the restoration of power-sharing in Northern Ireland, provided a final opportunity.

Fianna Fail was widely regarded as the party responsible for the Republic’s banking crisis throughout the last decade. But it’s been steadily rebuilding its reputation under the leadership of Micháel Martin, whose style is notably less republican and less populist than his predecessors.

Martin was new to the job in 2011 when Fianna Fail suffered an unprecedented humiliation at the polls. The Republic’s traditional party of government was reduced from 71 seats to 20 and beaten into third place by Irish Labour. He led them to a modest recovery in 2016, winning 44 seats. And the latest polls give Fianna Fail a lead over Fine Gael, with anything between 25% to 32% of the vote.

These surveys also suggest that Sinn Féin is performing well, with the Irish Times’ Ipsos MRBI poll showing 21% support, up from 14% in October.

Varadkar expected to bask in some of the reflected glory, when his deputy, Simon Coveney, co-published a deal to restore power-sharing in Northern Ireland, with the province’s UK secretary of state, Julian Smith. However, Sinn Fein’s numbers will also have benefited from Stormont’s revival and there is a confused, even hypocritical, attitude to the party among southern Irish politicians.

After its strong polling results, the Taoiseach reiterated his opposition to forming a coalition with Sinn Fein on the basis that it is “not a normal political party”. Micháel Martin offered similar commitments that Fianna Fail will refuse to share power with Sinn Fein, noting that it makes decisions by consulting “shadowy figures” and “unelected officials”.

These are oblique references to the IRA army council and other remnants of that terror organisation, which they believe still has a pivotal role in running Sinn Fein. Yet, neither man has any qualms about demanding unionists govern Northern Ireland in conjunction with the nationalist party, even though its links with paramilitaries are even more clear cut north of the border.

While there is widespread distaste for IRA gangsterism, Ireland’s attitude to violent republicanism is complicated and contradictory. Sinn Fein’s poll success coincided with a row over commemorating the Royal Irish Constabulary and the Dublin Metropolitan Police, pre-independence police forces that were targeted viciously during the Anglo-Irish War. After a public outcry, the Dublin government was eventually forced to abandon plans for a service to remember these men, who were mostly working-class Catholics killed by separatist paramilitaries.

Varadkar has lurched between portraying himself as a moderniser, detached from nationalist tribalism, and surfing a tide of anti-English feeling, one that has been intensified by the UK’s decision to leave the EU. At an internal Fine Gael meeting, just before the election announcement, he told activists that it was half-time in Brexit and Ireland was ‘1-0 up’. The image of a sporting contest between Britain and the Republic was a useful insight into his approach to negotiations so far.

The Irish prime minister is fighting the election on the basis of these apparent Brexit achievements and on Fine Gael’s claim to have guided the country out of an economic crisis and into a buoyant recovery.

Unfortunately for Varadkar, the “second half” of Britain’s negotiations with Brussels will determine whether there is a comprehensive trade deal that protects the Republic’s access to the UK market. Any failure to reach such an agreement will hit Ireland far harder than any other EU country.

And the voters seem stubbornly focussed on practical problems like the high cost of living, lack of affordable housing and an impending crisis over pensions, rather than revelling in positive macroeconomic statistics.

Owen Polley is a freelance writer and commentator. He was formerly manager of the Conservative Party campaign office in Northern Ireland (2011-2015).