Venezuelan crisis could help solve Trump’s border wall problem

Normality in American politics is now reserved for those days that would have previously been described as “abnormal”. So, by that measure, Friday, last week, was the most ordinary of days…

After five weeks of shutdown, the federal government was finally reopened after President Trump appeared in the Rose Garden of the White House to declare a 21-day truce. The deal meant that workers would finally get paid, while Republican and Democrat lawmakers, plus that remarkable Jack-of-no-trades, Jared Kushner, would hold meetings to get through this impasse.

Yet, if that were not enough to keep the cable television networks busy, Friday also saw the arrest of Roger Stone, the long-time political operative considered the Dark Vader of the political dark arts. The FBI raid on his Florida home in the early hours was the most high-profile product of the Mueller investigation. It wasn’t long after news of the arrest broke that reports from the White House spoke about preparations in the Rose Garden. Were the two events linked? Was the White House about to wrestle Stone out of the headlines?

One can never be sure about the motives of a man shaped so entirely by reality TV and tabloid media but probably more significant to Trump’s sudden change of heart was news that also broke early on Friday. Airports began reporting a shortage of air traffic controllers and New York’s LaGuardia airport was closed to incoming flights. Air traffic control had long been predicted to be the hill on which the battle for the wall would be won or lost and so it proved. Trump declared the end of the shutdown shortly after.

Except he also left us with everything he had to resolve still entirely unresolved. America has a president demanding money for a wall that began as an irrational campaign promise – a pledge with which the populist commentator Ann Coulter is now mocking him. He has moderated his language a bit to talk some sense about the use of technology in protecting the border but the essential demand is still there for a $5.7 billion down payment (useful to remember that’s not the entire cost) on a physical barrier that, if built, would produce considerable headaches for Republicans along its path. It would be they who would have to defend the right of the federal government to seize private land through eminent domain. We also still have the standoff between the two parties in Congress, each chamber claiming a mandate. Democrats in the House can rightly claim that their mandate is to oppose Trump, whilst Trump and Senate Republicans can rightly claim they were elected on the promise to build a wall.

The reality for Trump, however, is that he stood down in the face of increasing pressure from congressional Republicans who have been uneasy with the shutdown. A few votes haemorrhaged away to the Democrats last week and though they were largely the usual candidates (Collins, Murkowski, and Romney) the convoluted nature of the politics meant that Mike Lee of Utah and Tom Cotton of Arkansas joined the opposition, with every likelihood that more loyal Republicans would join them if a deal were not soon reached.

Into which political chaos we can now add Venezuela.

The strangest – and perhaps most significant – development last week was when the US government moved to recognise the opposition led by Juan Guaidó as the legitimate government of this failing state.

It came somewhat out of the blue, though tensions between the two countries had been running high for some time. Last September, Trump had described the country as “disruptive” and “dangerous” and voiced the possibility of a military coup. Last Thursday, Mike Pence reiterated that thought in more explicit terms, urging Venezuelans to overthrow the government of President Nicolás Maduro. The response from the Maduro government was unequivocal. Threats were issued and US diplomats told to leave the country.

Naturally, Maduro had retained the support of his allies, Russia, Cuba, Turkey, and China. Meanwhile, the actions of the Trump government have been supported by Canada, Australia, and seven South American countries including Brazil and Argentina. The EU, including the UK, have given Maduro an ultimatum to call new elections.

Not all of this should be read entirely in the context of the Trump administration or recent Republican politics. The tensions are long established. Obama considered military action in the country and tensions ran high throughout George W. Bush’s presidency. Republicans also have a long-standing ideological opposition towards Venezuela’s socialist governments and many with a Cuban heritage see the country’s plight in the context of the revolution in Cuba.

Given Trump’s “America First” posture, it just came as a surprise that the American government has been so forward leaning on this. John Bolton, the US National Security Advisor, has warned Maduro that if any harm comes to diplomats or the opposition leader, it will be considered “a grave assault on the rule of law” and will be met with a “significant response”. Why has the Trump administration chosen this moment to apply pressure?

Well, perhaps it gives Trump options, the most obvious boon being the argument that Venezuela could yet become the kind of humanitarian disaster that would threaten the US’s southern border. Back in December, a report by The Brookings Institution forecast that up to 8 million refugees could flee Venezuela. It’s a short flight of the imagination to link events in Venezuela to Trump’s campaign to get funds for his wall.

And what about Russia in all of this? Russia is supporting Maduro but it’s also noticeable that Russian state media has already started to voice the opinion that America’s response to Venezuela bears a striking similarity to how Russia dealt with Ukraine. To justify the US involvement in Venezuelan politics, John Bolton has pointed out that Venezuela “is in our hemisphere”. Does Venezuela put into play the old Cold War rhetoric much favoured by Putin, as well as his cynical view of building empires? In a strange convoluted way, might American involvement in Venezuela strengthen Russia’s hand in its own regional affairs? Might it even cool calls for America to be hotter on the issue of Russian interference in Ukraine?

If that is too much of a stretch, it is certainly not an overstatement to say that Venezuela offers Trump the very thing he’s craved since he took office: a challenge to America that would unite the people behind his presidency. Venezuela has proven itself a problem that countries in the region have long sought to solve and the case for U.S. intervention isn’t entirely unwarranted. Yet in terms of a domestic audience, it might also provide Trump with a way forward. If he can’t push through his current entanglement with Democrats, he might think it wiser to go around. It might be sensible, then, not to think of Venezuela as much as a distraction but as a detour. For the moment, as far as America’s politics are concerned, all roads lead to the wall.