Wagner Group lurks amid the chaos in Sudan

If there’s to be a victor in the Sudanese conflict it won’t be the Sudanese people. They are at the mercy of two brutal armed forces led by violent, power-hungry kleptomaniacs. Behind them are an array of outside actors including Russia’s Wagner Group, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the US and several others.

Fighting broke out last weekend between Sudan’s army, led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia and its commander Lieutenant General Mohamed Dagalo (also known as Hemedti).

In 2019 the two men engineered the overthrow of President Omar al-Bashir and two years later joined forces again to stage a coup against the country’s new civilian leadership. Relations, never friendly, soured as negotiations faltered over how to integrate the RSF fighters and their weapons into the army as part of a gradual return to civilian rule.

Last Wednesday, the RSF sent some of its forces to the strategically important town of Merowe which lies 210 miles north of the capital, Khartoum. It hosts a major airport and an electric dam situated on the Nile River. On Thursday, the army accused the RSF of making unauthorised movements in Merowe and in the capital. On Saturday, fighting broke out at a military base south of Khartoum and quickly spread to the borders with Ethiopia and Eritrea, as well as Port Sudan on the Red Sea. Tens of thousands of soldiers and militiamen were involved.

A host of entities and countries have a stake in what happens next. Al-Burhan and Dagalo each have close ties with the UAE and Saudi Arabia, and both sent military units to Yemen to help the Saudi-led coalition in the fight against the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels. Abu Dhabi and Riyadh want the fighting in Sudan to stop but are likely to wait to see what develops and then back the winner. Egypt has a deep relationship with Sudan and its diplomats know al-Burhan well and would probably prefer that he prevails. But it too is less interested in which side wins than in ensuring the state-to-state ties remain. The militaries frequently hold joint exercises, and both keep a watchful eye on Ethiopia as tensions rise over the huge dam it has built on the Blue Nile.

Moscow’s interests are in pursuing an agreement to build a facility for Russian navy ships to dock in Port Sudan on a 25-year lease. Sudan has a 530-mile-long coastline on the Red Sea and having Russian ships in Port Sudan would give Moscow a useful strategic foothold in the important trade waterway. However, it can also deal with whoever comes out on top in the current power struggle.

The same probably goes for the Wagner Group whose mercenaries have been present in Sudan for several years, drawn by treasure and the license to kill with impunity. In 2017 then President al-Bashir met President Putin and sold him the idea of using Sudan as Russia’s gateway into Africa, the Port Sudan idea grew from this. In return Russia would invest in Sudan, sell it weapons, send experts, and the Wagner Group would be involved to secure al-Bashir’s continuing rule. Sudan’s armed forces control most of the country’s economy. The RSF’s slice of the cake was that from 2017 it operated in the major gold mining areas and controlled the mines which are the source of Sudan’s most lucrative export. Wagner got a piece of the action by providing security. A new mining company named Meroe Gold showed up and won contracts to mine gold and export it (undeclared) to Russia. To no-one’s surprise it turned out to be a front company for Wagner. It was subsequently sanctioned by the US State Department and the EU following Wagner’s alleged support of the RSF when it killed more than 100 anti-government demonstrators in 2019.

Wager is also active in Chad, Mali, Burkina Faso, Central African Republic, Mozambique, Libya, and elsewhere in Africa, often acting as a “deniable” wing of Russian foreign policy which seeks to secure supplies of gold, uranium, silicon, manganese and other resources. The relationships are also useful in providing Moscow political support at the UN. For example, in last year’s vote to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine 15 African countries abstained and Eritrea and Mali voted with Moscow.

Last year Wagner’s relationship with the RSF and Dagalo deepened. Shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine Dagalo led what was ostensibly a government delegation to Moscow but in reality was more a meeting between the Kremlin and the RSF. Russia needed to boost its gold reserves, most of which came from RSF controlled mines, and the RSF needed military training which Wagner has since been supplying. The past 12 months have shown how Wagner has morphed from being just a mercenary army into one which has a network of companies and business interests in various industries.

None of this means that Russia will necessarily side with the RSF against the Sudanese Army. Putin knows he can do business with either Dagalo or al-Burhan, or both in the unlikely event they suddenly declare an “unlimited friendship” with each other. However, if any of the outside players begin to assist one side, a move which would come with a “quid pro quo”, all the others will become nervous and be tempted to choose a side to secure their interests.

For example, in theory the Americans could offer to covertly support al-Burhan in return for him nixing the proposed Russian port, this would force Russia to back Dagalo which in turn would complicate efforts to end the fighting. There are other scenarios, none of which currently appear to be happening, but the danger is there and grows the longer the conflict continues.

Dagalo has spent the last year trying to position himself as the pro-democracy general, the man who will accelerate the return to civilian rule. He also plays the card of being the man who stands up to the more Islamist tendencies of the army autocrats and has even employed western PR companies to bolster his image. Naturally his key role in the Janjaweed movement which laid waste to Darfur is not mentioned. However, the atrocities carried out by his forces, which later became the RSF, were a key factor in former President al-Bashir being indicted as a war criminal by the Hague.

If we start to see the players bigging up either of what are effectively warlords, it could presage a new phase in the story. As for Wagner, its boss, Yevgeny Prigozhin, said this week on Telegram: “I can tell you with absolute certainty… today not a single Wagner fighter, I emphasise not a single one, is in Sudan”. It seems unlikely to be true. 

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