Weak Macron and fading Merkel in no position to forge further integration

Things are never about what they’re about.

On Wednesday evening, The Times ran a story in its online edition about the emergence in Europe of a new Franco-German “superpower,” hinting at the creation sometime in the next few years of a combined army that would be the model for a European version of Nato. By one minute after midnight (appropriately), the headline had changed to “Paris and Berlin herald new era of integration”.

Neither seems to me to quite catch the insignificance of what is happening. President Emmanuel Macron of France and Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany are prisoners not only of the reduced political circumstances in which they find themselves, but also of their pre-arranged diplomatic calendar.

The pair – pale shadows of Charles De Gaulle and Konrad Adenauer – are due to turn up in Aachen/Aix-la-Chapelle on the 22nd of this month to put their names to a cooperation agreement that, while referencing defence and foreign policy, is mainly about the establishment of “Euro-districts” that would share infrastructure in towns and districts along their common border.

Most controversially, the agreement looks ahead to the pipe dream of a permanent seat for Germany on the UN Security Council – a development not within the gift of either signatory and certain to be opposed by the U.S. so long as Europe continues not to pull its weight in Nato.

The deal, such as it is, has been in gestation for several years. There can be little doubt that both leaders in their pomp (Macron when he was on the up, Merkel before she was robbed of her dominance of the Bundestag) thought that it was time for a grand gesture – one that would pull the rug from under the populists and demonstrate to the world that Brexit did not mean a halt in the march towards Ever Closer Union.

But that was then and this is now. The gilets-jaunes have in the meantime done for Macron. If he makes a Lazarus-like recovery from the oblivion into which he has fallen, it will deserve an entry in the Guinness Book of Records (and just so that you know, I’m not completely ruling this out, just not anytime soon). In Germany, Merkel’s 2015 decision to admit a million Muslim refugees from Syria, Iraq and elsewhere lost her the trust that had been reposed in her by voters of both left and right for the entire previous decade. Her grand coalition with the Social Democrats (itself a step down from absolute power) is in ruins and it is the AfD (Alternative für Deutschland) from the Right and Die Grüne (the Greens) from the Left who are making the political running.

To make things worse, the economies of both countries are in trouble.

France is not yet in crisis, economically-speaking, but it is slowing down, and unemployment, especially among the young, remains a serious issue.

Figures published today show that industrial production was down 1.3% in November month on month.

Last month, an embattled Macron attempted to buy off the gilet-jaune protesters by rowing back on pensions reform, dropping his proposed tax increase on diesel and increasing the minimum wage – largely payable by the state – by 100 euros a month. The projected loss to the treasury is well into double-digit billions, making it difficult, if not impossible, for the President to achieve his aim of making France a “sensible” country along the anglo-saxon model by the time he comes up for re-election in 2022.

Across the Rhine, the mighty German industrial machine is stuttering. Exports within the EU are slipping as demand across Europe falls. The emissions scandal continues to drag down the demand for Germany’s much-vaunted diesel cars, while Brexit hangs over the industry like the clasp-knife of Damocles. The ongoing row between Europe and Donald Trump’s America doesn’t help either, and neither does the slowdown in China. Taken together, what is happening isn’t exactly an existential crisis for German manufacturing, but it is not helpful either. The next few years are likely to prove diffciult, with voters reinforced in their belief that it is time for change.

And so the two roughed-up beasts of France and Germany slouch towards Aachen to be boring. The calendar says “picture opportunity,” and, unless there is a sudden change in plans (not entirely to be ruled out) that is exactly what is going to happen. This is about looking good, or at least “normal,” as though the last six months hadn’t happened. The integration show must go on.

It is hard to see the ceremony, to take place in the shadow of Aachen Cathedral, the site of Charlemagne’s tomb, being viewed in retrospect as a key event in the development of what some call the Franco-German alliance, others the Franco-German conspiracy. But history has a way of playing tricks, so you can never be sure. More likely, it will be forgotten, even by the participants, within weeks of the signing. Macron has his career to save, Merkel is thinking of her legacy. Neither will be pinning their hopes on a prolix document that contains more aspiration than actual architecture.

According to Berlin, the Eurozone’s two biggest economies “want to move ahead to ensure the security and well-being of citizens as well as a strong, sovereign and democratic Europe.” Paris said the treaty would cover joint projects in the areas of defence, climate change and security, as well as the sensitive issue of “economic and social convergence”.

Well, yes indeed. But also shared bus routes either side of the frontier and closer cooperation between councils in eastern Burgundy and Alsace and their neighbours in the Rhineland, Saarland and Baden-Württemberg. All very right and proper, but not the stuff of history.

Macron is (or was) obsessed with the idea of hastening European integration. Merkel was prepared to go along with this, up to a point. He wants an EU budget minister and further streamlining of EU decision-making, plus the setting-up of a fund that would share responsibility for dealing with financial crises in the member states. She wants to put all of these on the back burner, which may not even be lit. With the AfD and the Greens breathing down her neck, she has other things on her mind – as indeed now does he.

But, as I say, the show must go on, and so the two leaders will make their way to Aachen in two weeks’ time, uncomfortably aware, perhaps, of its close proximity to Maastricht, the Dutch city that gave its name to a treaty that genuinely changed everything.

Will France and Germany move a little bit closer as a result of the Aachen treaty? Possibly. Will the document they sign be seen as the beginnings of a European Army and a common European foreign policy? Perhaps. But don’t hold your breath.