Westminster 2016/2017: The Verdict

If MP’s aren’t staggering off into the Summer Recess in a state of shock, they should be. In fact anyone who takes a passing interest in British Politics would benefit from a quiet lie down after the events of the past twelve months.

A year ago Britain had a strong new Prime Minister promising to serve a full term until 2020. Brexit meant Brexit. Nicola Sturgeon was riding high in Scotland. Tim Farron was Lib Dem Leader. UKIP had an MP in parliament. Nigel Farage was the Party Leader (I’ve checked). Most Labour MPs regarded Jeremy Corbyn as an unelectable liability with a diminishing political life expectancy. A mismanagement scandal threatened to destroy the DUP leader Arlene Foster.

What a difference a year makes. None of that really applies any more.

That’s because the country was subjected to an election after all.  Mrs May, and practically everyone else, expected her to win consolidating “strong and stable” government. Instead she converted David Cameron’s narrow parliamentary majority into a minority government, propped up out of necessity by the DUP, making Mrs Foster the most important swing voter in the country, without even having to take a seat in the Commons.

The General Election refreshed politics in a way neither of Mrs May or Jeremy Corbyn had planned. Short notice meant the party leaderships had no time to weed out candidates they didn’t like. Parliament has more female and ethnic minority candidates than ever before, and none of them are the type to obey the whips meekly.

Meanwhile Britain plunged into leaving the European Union without a plan for the negotiations or an idea of what the country would look like on the other side of Brexit. At least a challenge in the Supreme Court forced parliament to debate it. But in March both main parties voted overwhelmingly to trigger Article 50 starting the exit process.

The EU’s determination to protect its own interests in Brexit, were strengthened when France elected a technocratic new President overwhelmingly. Emmanuel Macron rode a populist wave which rejected all of Frances established political parties but espouses mainstream pro-EU policies. He visited London urging financiers to move to Paris from the doorway of 10 Downing Street.

Mrs May was the first European leader into the Trump White House inviting the President to the UK for a state visit. There is as yet no date for that. It wasn’t mentioned in the Queen’s speech which her majesty delivered in normal clothes rather than ceremonial robes. Some though her hat designed recalled the European Union Flag. Macron entertained Trump as guest of honour at this month’s Bastille Day celebrations.

The government says they’ll be no state opening next year because there will be a two year session of parliament. But the Queen’s speech was thin and already MP’s, what Americans like to call our “law makers” are complaining of underemployment.

Brexit is everything but no two ministers agree on how it should be done. They all say they back the Prime Minister for now, while positioning themselves for a leadership election. But they are not sure they can engineer a change at the top without triggering a General Election which they fear Mr Corbyn might win.

Perhaps the ordinary people they encounter in their constituencies and elsewhere over their six week break will have some better ideas. At least they won’t be able to do themselves or anyone else more damage if they are far from Westminster lying down on a sun-lounger or in a darkened room.