What changes after the crisis

As we undertake strict isolation, and shielding, there are consolations. Recently the box set of the classic documentary The World at War arrived at our house from Amazon and in the last few days I’ve been watching it with my teenage son in an attempt to get some perspective on our current national and global emergency.

Thank goodness there was no middle class media Twitter in 1939-40. Imagine the most excitable members of that”community” responding.

Tweet – September 1939: “OMG. We are literally at war with Germany!”

Tweet – October  1939: “France obviously better prepared than us. Built Maginot Line defence made of enormous concrete things to defend all of France! Even has nice restaurants inside it for handsome troops. Sophisticated France. Silly Britain thinks being an island will save us. Pathetic!”

Tweet – November 1939: “Cabinet full of old white men. Disgrace.”

Tweet – December 1940: “So-called war totally hyped up. Where is it? I heard from someone who knows someone whose cousin works in the government that there isn’t really a war or a Hitler and it is all to give the government more control. Makes you think.”

Tweet – April 1940: “Was clever move by Belgium to declare neutrality. Why can’t we be so clever? What are we doing?!”

Tweet – Early May 1940: “OMG Hitler totally invaded Belgium.”

Tweet – Mid-May 1940: “Why did France not extend Maginot Line to cover Belgian border? So stupid!”

Retweet – Late May 1940: “Our troops are literally stuck on the beaches at Duncork. Help them Mr Winston so-called Churchill, show them you care.  Don’t send little sailing boats. DO SOMETHING!”

Tweet – June 1940: “Churchill = charlatan. Bad speeches and terrible smoking habit and often drunk. That guy will never win the war. Send for Lloyd George.”

When measured against what happened eighty years ago the allegations of incompetence levelled at the British state in handling the Coronavirus crisis look rather ridiculous and hyperbolic.

Back in 2020, and this week in parts of the media there has been a serious outbreak of “armchair general” syndrome, for which there appears to be no cure. Was the British government slow for a couple of weeks in February? It would appear so and there is going to be a public inquiry afterwards, no doubt. Why have Prince Charles and Boris Johnson been given Coronavirus tests? Because one is the heir to the throne and the other is the Prime Minister. Was there a conspiracy to refuse to take part in the EU ventilator scheme because of Brexit? Sounds like a cock up by tired, hard-working people. Why is there a bottleneck on testing? It is a grave concern; the chemicals are in short supply; they are trying to do more.

The good news is that the British army with the support of other public services built a “field” hospital in the East of London with 4,000 beds in just four days. That is impressive.

While the next few weeks or couple of months is going to be extremely tough, with many more deaths, it seems possible – possible – that the death toll in Britain will be much lower than feared just a few weeks ago before lockdown was introduced.

But what happens after lockdown is lifted, albeit a little at a time? What changes will there be after we have all emerged, blinking in the sunlight, walked to the pub, approached the bar and at a safe distance ordered a drink?

As it has been a long week or two I’ll leave you to get on with your weekend. First, here are four quick observations on what I think changes and what doesn’t.

1) China Crisis

Donald Trump may be screwing up the American response in a borderline deranged fashion that makes anyone who cares for the US shudder, but he is right about one thing. The determination in more liberal parts of the elite in the West to deny that this came from China, or to demand that the word China is not attached to the Coronavirus, is another example of their politically correct disconnection from the mass of voters. This virus started in China.

Once the first phase is over, when blame is being passed around, there will be considerable popular interest here among those who lost their jobs in how long it took the Chinese Communist Party to deal with this medical menace and halt the spread. And in the WHO’s appeasement of China earlier this year.

If the “Made in China” brand is toxic, do not expect it to hurt China too much economically, however. The focus in China in recent years has been on making its economy far less dependent on selling us exports. They want their economy to be more domestic. John Authers of Bloomberg pointed out this week that China’s stock market has recovered strongly as Coronavirus eases. It may indicate that having unleashed this thing on us, they won’t expect a return to what we consider normal in terms of trade.

2) Resilience becomes the dominant theme in our politics.

The extent of the anger directed at governments in a few months time in democratic nations will, to be blunt, rest on the size of the death toll.

Beyond any blame game, expect the British to develop a renewed interest in resilience and greater self-sufficiency. This is not – repeat, not – an end to trade. But questions such as “why can’t we manufacture that here?” and “are we ready if the virus comes back?” will be potent political questions asked of leaders in the next few years.

Building resilience will be an expensive process, raising prices and stoking inflation. The Treasury will have to incentivise far more business investment in machinery, science and technology to facilitate more manufacturing that boosts productivity.

A rebalancing was coming before the virus. In the aftermath of this thing the rebalancing must speed up.

3) Think of all the terrible novels.

If you are a writer or a journalist using lockdown to start work on the “great pandemic novel” please stop immediately! Instead, write something about love, sex, money, happier times, war or financial chicanery. Write about anything other than the pandemic.

4) Not everything will change.

We’ll hear a great deal about how everything will change afterwards. It won’t. We’ll be excited and innocent in the days and weeks when confinement is lifted. Look at that thing going down the street! It’s a bus. Can you believe what we’re doing next? We’re going to a restaurant!

The novelty will fade, thank goodness. We’ll decompress, acclimatise to normal life, file away fear and focus on the future. One of the greatest human attributes is the ability to recover at speed from disaster.