What does the battle for Severodonetsk mean for Ukraine?

Severodonetsk has become a key theatre of war on Ukraine’s eastern front as fighting intensifies in the city.

With Russian forces likely to continue their advancements in the weeks to come, here is what you need to know.

Where is Severodonetsk and why is it important?

The city, which sits in the west of the Luhansk region of eastern Ukraine, acts as the administrative centre of the region. The surrounding area is largely industrial. It contains the Azot chemical plant, where hundreds of Ukrainian civilians are currently sheltering.

Severodonetsk fell to Russian-backed separatists in 2014, but was recaptured by Ukrainian forces shortly after. It is looking increasingly likely that it could fall against relentless Russian attacks.

Located on the eastern side of the Siverskyi Donets river, Severodonetsk is a stone’s throw away from Lysychansk. Together, they are the last two cities in the Luhansk Oblast that remain under Ukrainian control.

If Severodonetsk falls, Lysychansk will be next.

What is happening on the ground?

Fighting in the streets of the city has continued to escalate, after Ukrainian forces were able to regain control over half of Severodonetsk, pushing back Russian forces who had been in control of 80 per cent of the city.

According to an update from The Institute for the Study of War: “The ability of Ukrainian forces to successfully counterattack in Severodonetsk, the Kremlin’s current priority area of operations, further indicates the declining combat power of Russian forces.”

Despite Ukrainian gains, Serhiy Haidai, the governor of the Luhansk region said: “The situation has worsened a little for [Ukraine] again,” as Russian forces begin to double down on their assault on the city, as well as across the entire frontline in Donetsk.

“The fiercest fighting is in Severodonetsk,” Haidai told Ukrainian national television.

Russian forces have intensified their bombardment of the city, suggesting their aim is to level the city in the same way as they did Mariupol. According to Haidai, Russia is aiming to “wipe everything off the face of the earth, so there would be nothing to defend.”

What could this mean for Ukraine?

Both Ukraine and Russia have suffered severe casualties in the streets of the city, with some Ukrainian units reportedly having withdrawn to the neighbouring city of Lysychansk. If Ukrainian forces are unable to hold Severodonetsk, Russian forces would only have to seize Lysychansk to take control of the entire Luhansk region.

Dr Frank Ledwidge, a senior lecturer in military strategy and law at the University of Portsmouth, told Sky News: “[Ukrainian forces] don’t seem to have declared it a sort of fortress city in the way they did Mariupol. It looks like they’ve withdrawn forces.”

Russian forces are concentrating their attacks in the east of Ukraine, but have also once again targeted Kyiv, for the first time in weeks, with missiles striking rail infrastructure on Sunday.

According to the UK Ministry of Defence, it’s probable that this was an attempt by Russian forces to prevent the supply of western military equipment to the frontlines. These strikes come as the UK agreed to send M270 long-range missiles to Ukraine, which Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said would “enable our Ukrainian friends to better protect themselves against the brutal use of long-range artillery.”

What does this mean for Putin’s war strategy?

Following Putin’s initial attempt to seize Kyiv, Russian forces have concentrated their attack on the eastern regions of Ukraine, as the Russian President seeks to consolidate his wins and regain control of the conflict.

After early failings, fears are that the Russian Army may have become more effective: “They’re pulling themselves together, even if some wider structural issues with the Russian army persist,” Dr Ledwidge said.

Russian forces are likely to continue their assault, with the hope of taking Severodonetsk in the coming weeks – giving them control of 90 per cent of Luhansk – before moving to capture the remaining Ukrainian held territory in the region.