If her reign had seemed endless her departure was mercifully brief. Nicola Sturgeon showed she had one last surprise for everyone by suddenly resigning this week, catching the media, her party, and the population off guard. For someone who had said just three weeks ago that she had “plenty in the tank” and was going nowhere this was an unexpected and sudden change of heart.
Despite her denial that “short term pressures” were not the reason she was resigning, it is clear that the transgender controversy, the failing deposit return scheme, the proposed ban on alcohol branding and advertising, the failure to dual the notorious A9 road and many, many other problems all played their part in her decision to quit. The controversy around a loan given by her husband, Peter Murrell, the chief executive officer of the SNP, to the party and the police investigation into £600,000 of missing donations must have played a part too.
Sturgeon had also lost the faith of the party. For so long the First Minister had been so sure-footed, so capable in media performances, that her floundering interviews were alarming for her supporters to witness. Sturgeon, idolised by many in her party, was found to have feet of clay and a series of car crash TV interviews and her inability to say at Holyrood whether double rapist Isla Bryson was a man or a woman had shocked her loyal supporters and many senior SNP members.
The subsequent polls showed a huge fall in support for independence, for Sturgeon, and for the party and the priorities the public cited as being the most important did not chime with the policies being pushed by Sturgeon. She was widely viewed as being out of touch with her party and the electorate.
Open revolt was a daily occurrence with SNP-run councils threatening rebellion over government intervention on the sacking of teachers, the de facto referendum proposal openly questioned by leading SNP MPs including Stewart MacDonald and Westminster leader Stephen Flynn, and a growing feeling that it was the end of days for Scotland’s longest serving first minister.
Her steely grip on the party was gone and her departure has highlighted the inherent problems years of discouraging debate or discussion creates. Nobody ever had the guts to question her, nobody was encouraged or mentored to be a future replacement, with the result that the choice of her successor has produced pretty slim pickings.
Kate Forbes, the finance minister, is among the favourites and would at least represent a generational change, as she is 33. She is, however, also a staunch and active member of the hardline Free Church of Scotland, often known as the Wee Frees, and this is potentially off-putting to some of the electorate. Angus Robertson is also cited as a potential leader but this would be a retrograde step as he is very much of the old guard, has little of the communication skills of Sturgeon and along with the other candidates would have little or no recognition value among the wider population.
Sturgeon’s departure has left Scottish nationalism with a major problem. Her leadership was based on the cult of her personality and without her, the party faces considerable difficulties in maintaining momentum. The proposed meeting next month to discuss the future direction of the party may be postponed until a new leader emerges but the problems the party now faces are deep rooted.
The Gender Recognition Bill is already being talked down and is likely to be dropped. Many of the policies currently causing problems may also be put on hold until a new leader is chosen. What is clear is that while many in her party clearly adored Nicola Sturgeon, a substantial number also saw that she was leading them into a dead end and that independence was as far from being achieved in 2023 as it was when she came to power eight years ago.
The lack of progression, the intransigent personality which did not allow opinions other than Nicola’s has put as many people off as those who found it appealing. It was Nicola’s way and no other way. The result is that there is an enormous vacuum at the heart of Scottish nationalism.
For the next leader, the challenges are enormous. A police investigation into murky financial dealings, governmental incompetence at all levels, a country and economy that isn’t working and which need immediate attention, striking public sector unions, and a failing NHS. It is clear that Murrell also has to go if the Sturgeon era is to end.
For the new SNP leader the challenge will be to address years of governmental drift and try to focus the party on what direction they should take with an election less than two years away. There is now a serious threat from the Labour party which is rejoicing in Sturgeon’s departure believing that this will result in a resurgence in their fortunes in Scotland. For the Nationalists there is considerable dismay that independence is now a distant prospect unlikely to be achieved for at least a generation. Sturgeon’s legacy may be that she has left her party more diminished than when she arrived.
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