What we’ve learned from Ukraine, one year on

We’ve learned, and/or remembered a lot in a year.

Remember “spheres of influence”? They were supposed to be a thing of the past despite Russia and others offering examples that they’re not. In March last year EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen claimed that “Putin is trying to turn back the clock to another era – an era of brutal force, of power politics, of spheres of influence”. Perhaps she meant the era of Russia invading Georgia (2008)? Or Russian annexing Crimea (2014)? Or China pushing its claims in the South China Sea, or Turkey’s “Blue Homeland” theories, etc.

In reality “spheres of influence” never went away. They are a simple fact of the relationship between geography and power. Not liking this is one thing, ignoring other states’ support for it because you don’t like it is foolish. Just as many rational secular people thought the jihadists couldn’t possibly believe all the wild nonsense they spouted, so many rational liberals thought Putin couldn’t really believe the fascistic imperialist notions he laid out over the past decade. Hence his July 2021 article “On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians” was either mostly ignored or dismissed despite it being a blueprint for the restoration of the Russian Empire penned by a revanchist leader with dictatorial tendencies.  

We’ve learned that the modern Russian military is hamstrung by mirroring the worst aspects of Russian politics. It is inept, corrupt, criminal, brutal towards both its opponents and its own personnel, and inflexible. We’ve learned that none of this matters to the self-hating Westerners who act as Kremlin apologists and are 21^st century versions of Stalin’s “useful idiots”.

We learn once again, and so remember, that Europe cannot take care of itself. Without American leadership it’s doubtful European unity on Ukraine would have held. Already cracks have shown, notably in Hungary and Italy. Without American money and weapons the European efforts to arm Ukraine would probably not have been enough to prevent Russia taking more territory than it has. The lesson learned from this is that the overhauling of the European militaries is long overdue, and that their budgets are still too low.

We’ve learned that dithering in the face of this crisis may have prolonged the war and thus cost lives. Eventually Moscow will be brought to the table, but only when it is shown it cannot win more territory and may even lose some. If long-range artillery had been approved earlier Ukraine would have lost less ground. If the tanks had been approved last year, they would be on the frontlines now ahead of any spring offensives. Political urgency and clarity are not mutually exclusive.

We’ve learned that almost all of us were wrong. I had forecast that within five days the Ukrainian forces would have to blow the bridges and fall back behind the Dnipro River while conducting partisan operations in the occupied territories. Others felt the whole thing would be over within a week. Instead, the Ukrainian forces showed incredible bravery, and initiative, and held out. They quickly learned to use the NATO standard weapons which arrived and even used them to go on the offensive. The Ukrainians’ willingness to fight showed how out of touch Putin is with the realities of a nation he does not believe exists and is another example of how an autocrat almost always ends up only being told what underlings believe he wants to hear.

We’ve seen how effective NATO’s weapons are. That is a lesson the carefully watching Chinese will not have missed. We’ve also seen how limited Beijing’s “unlimited friendship” with Moscow is. Despite the visit of the de facto Foreign Minister Wang Yi to Moscow this week China remains cautious about becoming too involved in this war and President Xi has told Putin in no uncertain terms not to use nuclear weapons.

A lesson perhaps not yet learned, or at least not widely recognised, is that “the World” is not united against Putin’s imperialistic war of choice. Only the usual autocratic suspects, China, Iran, Syria, Eritrea, and North Korea actively support Russia but rhetoric about civilised nations uniting against it are undermined by the abstentions at the United Nations when it comes to condemning Moscow. Numerous countries including democracies such as South Africa, India, and Indonesia do not feel they have to choose sides and are reluctant to adopt and enforce sanctions against Russia. Many see this is as a European issue and one which distracts from pressing concerns such as development and climate change.

This is understandable in the context of a multi-polar world where smaller and middle ranking states have the space to play various bigger powers off against each other. Russia has economic ties to Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East and countries there do not see why they should cut them for what many regard as a European civil war.

Finally, perhaps Europeans have learned to remember what we are. That the freedoms we enjoy were hard won and when in the past they were challenged we reacted. There has been a crisis of confidence in democracy this century and confusion about what it stands for. Putin’s malevolent aggression has reminded us and for 365 days now we have remained focussed on what is at stake here.

Will it last? During President Biden’s visit to Kyiv, he told Ukrainians that “You’re the frontlines of our collective defence”. But by talking about difficult years ahead for Ukraine he signalled that he understands that the Ukrainian crisis may not be settled before the end of his current presidency. If he does not win a second term it is far from certain that a Republican president would have the same commitment to Ukraine. All the more reason for the Europeans (including the UK) to use the next two years getting their own houses in order. The combined populations of the European democracies total three times that of Russia and their combined GDP dwarves Russia’s. Their military equipment is superior, and with Finland and Sweden joining NATO the European wing of the transatlantic alliance is gaining two well-trained, equipped, professional and motivated armed forces.

This second year of war will see Russia attempt to gain full control of the breakaway provinces of Luhansk and Donetsk and safeguard a land corridor from there to Crimea. Ukraine will use its newly arrived longer-range artillery, and soon to arrive tanks, to step up its ability for manoeuvre warfare, halt any Russian advances, and then go on the attack.

If we do not forget that engaging reasonably with an unreasonable violent power has its limits, then we will continue to support Kyiv. The lesson is – if you do not stand together, your enemies will take you apart. 

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