What’s Putin planning next?
Boris Johnson is being urged to beef up sanctions on Moscow in the wake of Vladimir Putin sending tanks and troops into eastern Ukraine and Germany’s decision to halt the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline.
EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Council President Charles Michel called Putin’s decision to recognise the provinces of Luhansk and Donetsk as independent “a blatant violation of international law.”
Speaking in the Commons today, Boris Johnson said the Kremlin’s actions amounted to “a renewed invasion” and that Putin’s aggression in Ukraine “must fail and be seen to fail”.
Strong words, but there wasn’t a lot of meat to the first raft of sanctions he set out; five Russian banks will have their assets frozen along with three Russian billionaires who won’t be allowed into the UK.
Johnson stressed there would be plenty more to come if Russia doesn’t back down. But while there’s a case for keeping the powder dry on the most severe sanctions, the first instalment does seem, in the words of Bill Browder, the US financier who has been instrumental in bringing sanctions against Russia, “pretty puny”. Tom Tugendhat said the UK response should go “much further, much faster.”
European leaders are poised to agree a raft of tougher sanctions, including a ban on trading in Russian state bonds, banning imports and exports from Luhansk and Donetsk and blacklisting politicians involved in the decision to recognise them as sovereign. President Joe Biden signed an executive order that prohibits new US investment, trade and financing in the breakaway regions.
Perhaps the most significant announcement came this morning, as German Chancellor Olaf Scholz finally committed to halting Nord Stream 2.
The project has been paused rather than scrapped. Still, it’s something Scholz has been extremely reluctant to do, and Germany’s refusal to entertain the idea of using the pipeline as leverage has undermined the Western position on Russia. Scholz’s dramatic change of mind illustrates just how far Germany’s thinking on Russia has shifted. He said the situation had “fundamentally changed.”
No one knows how far Putin will go. He ordered troops into Luhansk and Donetsk after laying the legal groundwork by formally recognising the provinces as independent states. The documents signed by Putin and the leaders of the Russian-backed separatist forces included a mutual security pact allowing for Russian “peacekeepers” to be sent in to “defend” the provinces.
But it’s not clear whether the document refers to the entire regions of Donetsk and Luhansk or the roughly one-third held by separatists.
This is no accident. It’s useful for Putin to keep things ambiguous while he decides on his next move. He has asked his tame parliament, the Douma, for permission to use military force outside Russia, which might signal a prelude to a broader offensive in Ukraine. US intelligence officials are convinced that a full assault on Kiev is on the cards. The continent is holding its breath.