WHO: Europe could see half a million Covid deaths this winter

Europe and central Asia are once again the “epicenter” of the coronavirus pandemic, and could see another half a million Covid deaths by February, according to Hans Kluge, the head of the World Health Organisation’s Europe region. 

If we stay on this trajectory, Kluge warned on Thursday, 43 countries across Europe and central Asia (out of the 53 that make up the region in total) “will face high to extreme stress on hospital beds at some point through the same period.”

Covid hospital admissions across the region have more than doubled in a week, according to the latest WHO/Europe data.

Last week, the European and central Asia region accounted for 59 per cent of all Covid cases globally and 48 per cent of recorded deaths. It reported nearly 1.8 million new cases and 24,000 new deaths – a six per cent increase in infections and a 12 per cent increase in fatalities, compared to the previous week. New cases have risen 55 per cent in the past month.

“We are at another critical point of pandemic resurgence,” Kluge said. 

Infection rates have soared on mainland Europe in recent weeks, especially in central and eastern Europe and Russia, but also in France and Germany. 

French health authorities reported over 10,000 cases on Wednesday for the first time since mid-September. And Germany reported almost 34,000 new daily infections on Thursday, breaking a record set in December 2020. Jens Spahn, the health minister, said on Wednesday that the country was entering a fourth wave, and described the situation as “a pandemic of the unvaccinated.”

In England, an estimated one in 50 people are testing positive from the virus, according to new data from the ONS. Overall, infections have increased more slowly over the previous two-week period, although this trend was less clear last week.

Kluge pointed out though that the number of daily deaths in the Europe and central Asia region is still about half that of earlier peaks, despite near-record Covid cases. He attributed this to the vaccine. However, on average, only 47 per cent of people in the region have been double jabbed. “Where vaccine uptake is low — in many countries in the Baltics, central and eastern Europe, and the Balkans — hospital admission rates are high,” Kluge added. 

The WHO has put this worrying resurgence of cases down to both insufficient vaccination coverage and the relaxation of public health and social measures.