Who will replace Sedwill as Britain’s most powerful mandarin?

Downing Street will in the coming weeks announce a replacement for Sir Mark Sedwill as Cabinet Secretary. It is the most powerful job in Whitehall, with the newcomer expected to oversee the response to coronavirus and to overhaul the Civil Service machine. Yet we know very little about how the appointment is made.

Previous prime ministers have personalised the selection process to fit their individual needs: “It doesn’t happen that often, because cabinet secretaries stay on for a long time,” said Peter Ricketts, a former National Security Adviser. “It’s always someone the PM personally favours, someone they want to trust.”

This was demonstrated by Theresa May’s appointment of Sedwill. Sources familiar with the process have noted that it was no coincidence that the victor in her selection process was the Permanent Secretary for the Home Office, the department she had just left.

Johnson’s process appears to be more restrictive than May’s, following an intervention from the first Civil Service commissioner, Ian Watmore, who insisted that the appointment must be made from a pool of former or current permanent secretaries. Johnson has very few notable allies among them.

“It looks like they’ve run a process quite similar to a permanent secretary appointment,” said Alex Thomas of the Institute for Government.

“You would have people that sift through the field and recommend to the Prime Minister anyone deemed, in civil service speak, ‘above the line’. They would then be put forward in preference order.”

Reaction understands that there will be 2-3 names in the final shortlist, with whom the Prime Minister will then conduct interviews before making a final choice. In conversations with former senior civil servants, most of whom spoke on the condition of anonymity, the following four names appeared frequently.

Antonia Romeo, the Permanent Secretary for the Department for International Trade, is the favourite candidate. She has risen through the Civil Service at a precipitous pace and enjoys a positive relationship with senior cabinet ministers. There has been an informal campaign by some allies of the Prime Minister to have her appointed.

However, she is viewed less favourably by some of her Whitehall peers. Critics point to Romeo’s time as consul-general in New York, where she is said to have treated her staff with disdain. Recent reports in the Mail on Sunday revealed that complaints of bullying were filed against her, leading to a Cabinet Office investigation. Consul officials used words such as “terrorised” to describe her leadership style.

“She’s essentially quite a political operator – and probably seen as very close to the current government in her thinking – who’s been promoted fast by this government. She wouldn’t have the confidence of the civil service. It would be a negative signal to civil servants from Downing Street,” said a former permanent secretary.

There was similar derision from almost every other source. One former government adviser claimed to that “what they want in a Cabinet Secretary is a yes person, which is very dangerous. But that’s what they want, and Antonia will deliver it to them.”

Summing up Romeo’s predicament, a former principal private secretary (PPS) to a Cabinet Secretary said: “Quite a lot of people have found her challenging to work with, or have resented her rise. She has plenty of friends, and she has a lot of enemies as well.”

But the opinions of civil servants will have little impact on the final decision. The priority for Johnson will be loyalty, and Romeo is seen by Johnson’s allies as someone who believes in the post-Brexit Global Britain agenda. Johnson has already demonstrated, with the appointment of David Frost as National Security Adviser, that he does not highly rate the Whitehall consensus.

Sharon White, the former Chief Executive of Ofcom who was recently appointed Chair the John Lewis Partnership, is a name with which civil servants are much more comfortable. Considered a capable operator, she would become the first black Cabinet Secretary.

“If you had a chance to select someone who visibly demonstrates change, Sharon White is it. This is a very presentational prime minister, and she ticks all the boxes,” said a former government adviser.

Her experience at John Lewis may endear her to those in Downing Street seeking goal-oriented reforms to the civil service.

“She has managed big delivery programmes. She has private experience and now she’s coming back,” said a former permanent secretary. “That would be seen as a vote of confidence in the civil service.”

There are doubts, however, that she would want the job. “I don’t think she would apply,” said a former Cabinet Office PPS. Another source close to Whitehall added: “If you’re a serious person like Sharon White, you might think Boris isn’t going to last long and I can’t work with his team.”

Chris Wormald, the permanent secretary at the Department for Health, is considered the safest option. He has previously served as permanent secretary for the Department for Education and prior to that held several senior roles in the Cabinet Office, including as Director General in the Deputy Prime Minister’s Office. “He would be the civil servants’ choice,” said a source familiar with Downing Street’s thinking.

His chances have been greatly reduced by the pandemic, however. The Department for Health is widely seen to have performed poorly on organisational matters. A former Cabinet Office policy adviser noted: “You cannot expect someone to overhaul the civil service who couldn’t competently count the number of tests being conducted.”

Simon Case, the new Permanent Secretary for Number 10, has been praised for calmly navigating choppy waters at Kensington Palace as Private Secretary to the Duke of Cambridge. He is also considered a capable operator Johnson and Cummings, who are said to have promoted him to challenge Sedwill’s authority.

But he may struggle to quickly adapt to the top job, given that he has only been a permanent secretary for a couple of months.

“It’s important the Cabinet Secretary has credibility over the other permanent secretaries and can coordinate them. It needs to be someone whose experience they respect,” said a former permanent secretary.

Case was considered a front-runner at the sart of the process. Now sources close to him have been eager to downplay his chances. “He’s made it clear to people that he doesn’t want it. It would be extraordinary for someone to so rapidly become Cabinet Secretary,” said a former Cabinet Office PPS.

It’s more likely that Case will oversee the expansion of his current role leading civil servants in Downing Street; Johnson’s advisers are planning to base a beefed-up prime ministerial office in the traditional home of the Cabinet Office, 70 Whitehall.

There are numerous other candidates who do not feature heavily in the Whitehall rumour-mill but are nonetheless widely considered qualified for the role. They include Sarah Healey, the Permanent Secretary for the Department for Digital, Culture, Media and Sport, and Alex Chisolm, the Chief Operating Office for the Civil Service and Permanent Secretary for the Cabinet Office.

Whoever is appointed will have come from the same Whitehall-embedded background, having worked their way up to the top of a department. It’s rather ironic that a Downing Street which prides itself on eschewing Whitehall norms has been forced to choose from such a restricted pool of candidates.

That irony has not gone unnoticed amongst sources sympathetic to Sir Mark Sedwill, one of whom said: “The briefing against Mark enabled Iain Watmore to slightly roll them over. That’s the position they’ve got themselves into.”