Why are Covid cases in the UK so high?

Daily Covid-19 cases in the UK have remained steady for weeks but the current figures are by no means low. When we compare infection rates with those of our European neighbours, this reality becomes starker. 

According to Our World In Data, the UK has had over 471,500 confirmed cases of Covid-19 in the past two weeks. By comparison, Spain and Italy have recorded close to 30,000 and just over 45,000 cases respectively. Germany has recorded just under 110,000 while India and Russia are both in the 300,000 range. 

The UK’s higher infection rate is leading to more deaths; 26.2 Covid deaths per million people were recorded in the UK in the last fortnight. While not as dramatic a death toll as Russia (79.6) or Turkey (36.5), this is much higher than both France and Spain’s figure of 13, and Germany, which has seen fewer than 10 deaths per million. 

When it comes to the percentage of the population to have been fully inoculated, a number of European countries – including Portugal, Italy, Spain and France – have now overtaken the UK. Nevertheless, the UK still has very solid vaccination coverage and, what is more, the Delta variant has very much established itself across the continent. Why then, are UK infection levels so comparatively high? 

It’s first crucial to highlight the potential inconsistencies which arise when making international comparisons. Given varying population sizes and ages, we are so often not comparing like for like.

Another inaccuracy when it comes to comparing infection rates across borders – and one which is highly relevant in this instance – is the disparity in the number of daily tests being conducted in different countries. “We have an epidemic of testing in the UK”, says Dr Jason Oke, a senior statistician at the Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences. In his opinion, this is the “most likely factor” contributing to the UK’s comparatively high infection rate. As Dr Oke points out, on Statista’s graph which shows the rate of Covid tests per million people conducted within the world’s most virus-impacted countries, the UK is ranked number one. 

Austria, which conducts a giant 37.4 daily Covid tests per thousand people is an anomaly, but in general, the UK stands out for the vast number of tests it’s carrying out: 12.7 tests per thousand people, compared to Italy which is conducting under 5 per thousand, and Spain and Germany which are on 1.97 and 1.6 respectively. 

Testing aside, there are likely to be a number of other factors contributing to Britain’s comparatively high infection rate. For Prof Lawrence Young, a Virologist at University of Warwick, one glaring explanation is the UK’s delayed decision to start vaccinating the young.

Hospitalisations and deaths from the virus in the UK are still heavily concentrated in the elderly but infection rates are now highest among school children. 

Other European countries have been more proactive about encouraging vaccine take-up among younger age groups. The UK began offering jabs to 16-18-year-olds in mid-August and, after much deliberation, finally started to offer jabs to 12-15-year-olds on the 20 September. 

By comparison, France extended its vaccine roll-out to those over 12 as far back as 15 June. Italy followed suit in July and Germany did so in mid-August. 

In Spain, the push to vaccinate over 12s only really began in August but the country has made rapid progress. By 7 September, the percentage of protected 12-19-year-olds actually exceeded the figure for those in the 20-29 and 30-39 age groups, with over three quarters of 12-19-year-olds having already been offered at least one dose of a vaccine. By the following week, almost 60 per cent of 12-19-year-olds had been fully vaccinated, preventing infection rates from spiking as schools resumed after the summer. 

Behavioural differences between countries, such as differing levels of compliance with mask-wearing, could also play a part in the disparity – though these factors are harder to quantify. For now, the UK’s stringent testing regime as well as the lower number of vaccinated youngsters both appear to be plausible explanations for the UK’s high infection rate.