Why Erdogan is playing good cop with the West

You’ve got to hand it to the Sultan of Swing Policy – when he dances, he can spin on a sixpence and turn a full 180 degrees so quickly he’s a blur of motion.

During a 72-hour period Turkey’s President Erdogan lifted his objection to Sweden joining NATO, endorsed Ukraine’s eventual membership, allowed the Ukrainian ‘Azov Commanders’ to return home, opened negotiations with France to oversee a Russian built nuclear plant in Turkey, and asked for EU accession talks to be unfrozen.  

Erdogan’s good at this stuff because he’s shamelessly transactional. For months he blocked Swedish membership of NATO citing issues with the Nordic power’s allegedly soft policies regarding Kurdish separatists. Stockholm amended its constitution, cracked down on Kurdish activists, agreed to co-operate more fully with Turkey against the armed separatist group the PKK, and said it would back Turkish requests to make it easier for Turks to visit EU countries. Right up to the eve of the summit, Erdogan still said no, and then -lo! the Sultan of Swing swung, and as if by magic Erdogan was bathed in gratitude and the Vilnius summit was a success.

By no co-incidence the following day the White House said it would be moving ahead with the sale of F-16 fighter jets to Turkey (in consultation with Congress). The U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan firmly rejected any suggestion of a link with Turkey’s decision on Sweden – a comment it’s possible, if unlikely, that someone somewhere in the world might have believed.

The F-16 deal is viewed as the best way to reverse the trajectory of the last few years when Turkey became almost a semi-detached member of NATO and the Americans were quick off the mark. This week, Turkey’s defence minister spoke with his opposite number Lloyd Austin after which the US Defence Dept issued a glowing press release saying the two men had “lauded the long history of military cooperation between the United States and Turkey and applauded our continued close cooperation”.

Six weeks after his election to a third term, President Erdogan looks as if he feels he has more room to pirouette. He needs to. The increasingly strained relationship with NATO allies, and cooperation with Russia resulted in a reduction in inward investment which hurt an already failing economy suffering runaway inflation.

Hence the partial pivot and willingness to upset President Putin who is enraged by the return of the 5 Azov Commanders to Ukraine. They are the surviving leaders of the defence of the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol which was besieged by the Russians for 80 days last year. In September, a prisoner swap was agreed with Russia with the condition that the 5 would be kept under supervision in Turkey.

If Russia follows through with its threat to pull out of the agreement allowing Ukrainian grain exports safe passage through the Black Sea, Erdogan, who brokered the deal, will consider offering Turkish warships to do the job. Erdogan can see how diminished Putin is by the Ukraine war and the recent Prigozhin humiliation – now is the time to play good cop with NATO the EU and the US and bad cop with Moscow.

He must know there is zero chance of Turkey joining the EU but asking to re-open the talks signals that he wants a warming of relations and a return to investment which will calm the financial markets and stabilise the Turkish lira. He can also court the developing countries which currently buy weapons from Moscow but are angry that Putin’s actions have caused global food shortages and rampant inflation. Turkey has a thriving arms business and is now the twelfth biggest exporter of arms in the world.

Erdogan has many characteristics. Among them are a continuing ability to read the room and an awareness of his strengths and weaknesses. Putin used to be able to do the same but as he dropped the ball, Erdogan dropped him.

This does not mean the Turkish leader has had a change of heart, but he does appear to have had a change of mind.

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