Why is Modi visiting Ukraine now?
If Zelensky is hoping to persuade the Indian PM to finally condemn Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, he will almost certainly be left disappointed.
Narendra Modi is preparing for a landmark visit to Kyiv tomorrow – the first by an Indian head of state since diplomatic relations were established over 30 years ago – as he continues to walk the diplomatic tightrope over the Russia-Ukraine war.
The meeting comes a little over a month after Modi’s visit to Moscow, where he was seen warmly embracing his “dear friend” Putin, hours after the deadly bombing of a children’s hospital in Kyiv killed 41 Ukrainians. At the time, President Zelensky did not mince his words, declaring it “a devastating blow to peace efforts to see the leader of the world’s largest democracy hug the world’s most bloody criminal in Moscow on such a day”.
Speaking of unfortunate timing, the Indian PM’s trip to Kyiv coincides with new data demonstrating the degree to which Delhi is funding Putin’s war machine. Import figures out today reveal that India overtook China last month as the world’s top buyer of Russian oil. Russian crude made up a record 44 per cent of India’s overall imports last month, rising to a record 2.07 million barrels per day, 12 per cent more than a year ago.
All of which prompts the question, what exactly is India’s stance on the war?
Neutral, according to Dehli.
India has a legacy of foreign policy neutrality. For decades after independence, it was a leader of the “non-aligned movement” – a position fashioned during the Cold War in which countries in the developing world refused to side with either the Western or Eastern blocs.
Though many view Modi’s modern-day “neutrality” as tacit support for Moscow.
Modi has refused to directly condemn Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, despite many western nations imploring him to do so and India has repeatedly refused to back UN resolutions calling for Russia to end its offensive in Ukraine.
Historically, Delhi has also lent Moscow support on the international stage. In the 2000s, it voted against a UN Human Rights Commission resolution condemning Russia’s “disproportionate use of force” in the Chechen war and, in 2020, voted against another resolution condemning human rights violations in Crimea.
As today’s import stats today demonstrate, India’s stance on the war in Ukraine is driven in part by economic opportunism. While gorging on Russian energy certainly undermines the impact of western sanctions on Moscow, as far as Delhi is concerned, these sanctions are a bonus since they force Russians to sell its less sought-after oil to Indian refiners at a discounted price.
Oil aside, India – the world’s largest importer of arms – buys over 50 per cent of its military equipment from Moscow.
Modi has political incentives too for maintaining cosy relations with the Kremlin. Putin’s support for India over Kashmir has been unrelenting. After Modi’s government faced international condemnation for revoking Jammu and Kashmir’s special status, Moscow insisted this was an “internal matter” for India.
Modi will also be fearful of falling foul of Russia at a time when relations between Putin and Xi Jinping are so cordial. He wouldn’t want Moscow to side with Beijing during India-China territorial conflicts.
At the same time, Modi doesn’t wish to jeopardise his relations with the West. For some of the very same reasons, such as trade.
India is one of the world’s top four textile exporters, for instance, with exports over the last year valued at $41 billion. And the US is, by a long way, the biggest importer, accounting for 29 per cent of the total share. Germany and the UK are amongst the top five biggest importers. The US is also the number one importer of Indian pharmaceutical products as well as being the largest importer of Indian leather, followed by the US, Germany, Britain, Italy and France.
Modi’s trip to Kyiv tomorrow appears to be a conciliatory gesture towards Zelensky and the West. An acknowledgment, perhaps, of the upset caused by his ill-timed embrace of Putin back in July.
But if Zelensky is hoping to persuade the Indian PM to finally condemn Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, he will almost certainly be left disappointed.
Modi wants to have his cake and eat it. And he is well practiced in containing a middle-ground in the face of pressure from the West. He has done so with Iran for years.