Why Liz Truss is the front-runner to take over from Boris Johnson as Tory leader
This is Iain Martin’s newsletter for members of Reaction. Become a member of Reaction here.
Congratulations to the person running the country, on the birth of a bouncing baby. Congratulations must also go to the husband of Carrie Johnson, Boris.
What a week it has been for the current (big emphasis on current) Tory leader. He has had such an intense time of it that his colleagues in the Commons may be about to suggest he takes extended paternity leave from the position of Prime Minister. Why not extend it forever?
Is it that bad? In short, yes. To paraphrase, or misquote, Boris’s hero Winston Churchill, in the Johnson premiership this is not the end of the beginning. We are at the beginning of the end.
Although the departure of Boris may not happen immediately, it is in sight. The Prime Minister may limp on for a bit, months, a year even, but it seems his race is run.
That’s why this is an earlier than usual weekly newsletter for members of Reaction. Things are moving so fast I thought it might be useful to help bring you up to speed from where I’m sitting in the Palace of Westminster. I have a cup of tea and a good view of the plotting.
Paul Goodman, a former Tory MP and as editor of Conservative Home, the Tory Bible, always a shrewd judge of these matters, says that a vote of no confidence in Boris Johnson now cannot be ruled out.
Tory MPs are furious. It is much more than the business of the Number 10 party – “It’s my party, and I’ll lie if I want to” – although that has been so spectacularly mishandled that it is difficult to know where to start. If ten days ago the Prime Minister had said officials and advisors had had a socially distanced glass of wine at their desks a year ago, observing the rules, Number 10 might have got away with it. Further, he could have said that he had asked the Cabinet Secretary to make enquiries and ensure the rules were followed, and to remind everyone that the rules apply to the governed and the government. And that he had written to the leaders of the other parties asking them to check that any gatherings their frontbenchers held were within the rules as they stood at the time on bubbles and all the rest.
The Lib Dems don’t have sufficient numbers for a Christmas party, but if the rumours are true that elements of the bigger opposition parties did hold a socially distanced gathering or two then it would be best to have clarity.
What would have worked a week ago won’t now. Worse, a lot of young officials and advisors have since been thrown under the bus by their boss. They may end up being interviewed by the police, and even fined. Boris hates scrutiny. That determination to wave it away a week ago has now made the situation much worse.
Then there is the question of the Downing Street flat and the strange arrangement made for its refurbishment. Is the Prime Minister telling the truth about all that? It appears the authorities have been misled, unwittingly or otherwise and the Tories have now been fined £17,800 for breaking the law.
What’s caused most fury, worse than the party in Downing Street or the real national scandal of the Foreign Office mishandling of the fall of Kabul, is the decision by the government to impose more restrictions, or Plan B. “If the PM rather than Sajid (the health secretary) had announced it in the Commons it would have been fatal,” says an MP. As it is, there were shouts of resign directed at Javid. The feeling is that the government, in a hole on other matters, is reaching for more restrictions that imperil the economy when it is unclear how serious the new variant is. Personally, I’m not sure that is the case. Some caution on this thing seems sensible, but I know some members of Reaction will feel differently. Either way, Tory MPs are livid.
The rebels are organising against Plan B, and if Labour refuses to endorse the measures, Boris has a problem.
There is also the North Shropshire by-election next week, where the Tories are defending a 22,000 majority. It should be unlosable, though Labour is throwing its frontbench at the contest in on the ground campaigning. The Tories will hope that the Lib Dems and Labour cancel each other out. It’s combustible, and with accusations of sleaze and incompetence haunting the Conservatives, and a drafted-in candidate in a mess locally, the scene is set for classic drama. There’s a symmetry to it too. This was Owen Paterson’s seat. The PM’s mishandling of that row turned his troubles from mild to serious in the autumn. Tory MPs felt they had been made to look like fools and the whipping operation broke down. Boris Johnson has lost control of Tory party management.
A win in the by-election next week buys Boris some time. A defeat would unleash instant hell.
All this means that it is time to think about runners and riders in a potential Tory leadership race. It might not happen right away, but it is an understatement to say soundings are being taken. “It’s very much game on,” a Tory MP told me this afternoon. “One way or another it feels like the end of Boris,” said another.
The front-runner if there is a contest soon is Liz Truss, the Foreign Secretary.
Rishi Sunak, the Chancellor, is often seen outside the Tory tribe as the obvious candidate. He is, or was, popular in the country because of his pandemic measures and he has an easy, approachable air. Here is a technocrat with a great backstory, and he voted for Brexit.
Sunak is much weakened now. While he shouldn’t be written off, his decision to push tax rises baffled his colleagues and alienated Tory activists who will make the final decision in contest. MPs whittle it down to a final two.
What does Rishi believe? He is wide open to accusations that he’s an “empty suit” without ideological moorings. The Treasury tax hikes will not have been popular with Tory activists either, which explains why he has slipped down the regular poll of Tory activists of late.
Truss tops that poll, with a plus 80% rating. Boris is on -17.2, by the way.
The Foreign Secretary is a robustly free-market person who will be presented as being in the mould of Margaret Thatcher. She’s tough – witness the way she doesn’t let mockery bother her. After the high-spending, high tax Boris era, she will promise economic dynamism and reform.
The other candidate who is very well-placed is Jeremy Hunt, the former Health Secretary who lost to Boris in the 2019 run-off. He’ll run appealing to the left and centre of the Tory party. Having stayed out of the government Boris runs he will try to cast himself as untainted by recent events. When Truss makes a big play of Brexit, and she will need the support of free market Brexiteers to win, Hunt can point out that she, like him, voted to Remain.
Hunt is also, potentially, good for the Union. There’s a small Scottish connection, but even more importantly he looks like the kind of sensible, pragmatic person wavering voters in Scotland might like if they’re looking for an excuse to decide that the Tories have gone sane again after the Boris experiment. That strengthens the Union by closing off a Nat line of attack. Boris is a gift to the Nats.
Some others may fancy a run. Michael Gove may try, having been vindicated on Boris when he said in 2016 he would struggle as PM. Sajid Javid would likely have another go. His supporters could then go in with Hunt, in return for a Javid return to the Treasury.
Kwasi Kwarteng, the Business Secretary, is a Boris loyalist but friendship in politics, if not life, is a fickle thing. Kwarteng is an admirer of Truss and she may think of putting him in the Treasury, if she wins.
It is going to be an interesting 2022.
Earlier today, for Reaction’s YouTube and podcast show featuring authors in conversation, I interviewed Alwyn Turner, whose latest volume on English history from 2000-2015 “All in it Together” features ten mentions in the index for Boris Johnson. Throughout that period, Boris keeps popping up as the rising figure. Progressing from journalism, through the London mayoralty until he was the biggest celebrity politician in a celebrity age. The narrative somehow demanded that in the end he become Prime Minister. He was the coming man.
Now, unless he gets a miracle, he is the going man.
What I’m Reading
Charles Moore’s multi-volume biography of Margaret Thatcher, primarily the chapter dealing with the 1975 leadership contest when it was Thatcher’s boldness in challenging Ted Heath that won her the prize. All the boys were too scared. Thatcher was bold and grabbed it, an example of the adage that character is destiny.
Have a good weekend, when it comes.
Iain Martin,
Editor and publisher,
Reaction