Why the 21 June great unlocking is in doubt

Something has changed. Officials struck a decidedly cautious tone this week, playing down hopes of removing all coronavirus restrictions on 21 June in a concerted effort to manage the country’s expectations.

Kwasi Kwarteng, the business secretary, said it was “impossible” to know if the unlocking would go ahead; Jenny Harries, the chief executive of the new UK Health Security Agency, said the decision was “rather in the balance”; and Boris Johnson warned the country “may need to wait” to see more data.

These comments mark a significant shift from the PM’s “cautiously optimistic” hopes of the week before – and reveal real concern at the heart of government. But what data are these officials looking at? And why the sudden concern?

The main threat to the next step on the roadmap is the rapid spread of the Indian variant. Public Health England data shows cases of the variant have risen by 3,535 to 6,959 since last week – and Matt Hancock, the health secretary, said up to three quarters of new UK Covid cases could be of the new variant.

There is also concern about the overall number of Covid cases after last week’s figures showed a spike following five straight weeks of reduced cases. The figures are of particular concern because the full impact of unlocking indoor mixing on 17 May is not yet evident due to a time lag.

This week’s Office for National Statistics (ONS) report estimates that 48,500 people across the country had the virus in the week to 22 May, showing little movement from the 49,000 cases the week earlier – after the numbers spiked from 41,000 the week before.

SAGE added to the concern today, warning the R rate of the virus has moved up slightly to 1.0 to 1.1 in a sign that the outbreak is growing again. The group said the R rate is as high as 1.2 in the North West, where the Indian variant is most prevalent.

But it’s not all bad news. Currently, 45.6 per cent of the UK’s adult population have had their second dose, around 24 million people, and this proportion is rising by roughly 5 per cent every week.

The high uptake of the vaccine, along with the World Health Organisation’s evidence that current jabs appear to be protective against variants, provide fresh hope that the impact of rising Covid cases will be less severe than previous waves.

And so far, this hope is playing out in real-time. The latest PublicHealth England (PHE) data shows that most people with the Indian variant had not been vaccinated, with just three per cent of cases (177 out of 5,599) from 1 February to 25 May having received both doses.

Of the 201 people who ended up in A&E, just five had had both vaccine doses, while 138 were unvaccinated and 45 had had their first dose more than three weeks previously.

Of the 43 patients who needed to be admitted to hospital overnight, only one person had had both vaccines, and of the 12 deaths, eight were unvaccinated.

The latest Test and Trace data also shows that the average age of those testing positive is now 29, compared with 41 at the start of the year. Younger people are less likely to need hospital treatment or intensive care, meaning there is less likely to be a strain on the NHS.

Despite the positive data, some scientists are still calling for a delay to the 21 June unlocking. Professor Andrew Hayward, an infectious disease expert, said that although studies show full vaccination is “highly protective” against the Indian variant, the jab’s “protective effect” is only about 30 per cent in those who have received just a single shot.

He said: “I think there is a good argument for caution until such time as we’ve got a much higher proportion of the population double vaccinated.”

There is also the question of how long immunity lasts. Two recent studies, which have not yet been peer reviewed, suggest Covid immunity could last at least a year after vaccination.

A study published by the Nature research community showed that antibody-producing cells located in a person’s bone marrow keep “memories” of the virus long after it’s gone. Another study, published on the research site BioRxiv, found that memory immune cells can strengthen for at least 12 months after someone has been infected with the virus. 

Last week the UK launched a world-first clinical trial to see whether a booster vaccine dose of seven existing vaccines could protect people against Covid and its variants. The government will use the data from this trial, which is set to report at the end of August or early September, to decide a plan for booster vaccines later this year.

Until then, data from the next two to three weeks is said to be “critical” for the prospect of a 21 June unlocking. Officials have said a decision on the next phase of the roadmap will be announced by 14 June – and the country will be watching Chris Whitty’s press conference graphs very closely until a decision is reached.