Wild Trump speech points the way to constitutional chaos

As it began so it ends. Almost four years ago Donald Trump gave his inauguration speech, a strange foreboding address. Behind him on the stage sat George W. Bush who turned to Hillary Clinton and, as Trump’s tirade against “American Chaos” ended, Bush, so Clinton claims, turned to her and pithily proclaimed: “Well, that was some weird shit.”

Watching Trump’s address last night, the words of Bush floated back into to my mind. In relentlessly attacking the legitimacy of the US election, and by making baseless claims about massive ballot fraud, Trump once again sank to meet everyone’s worst expectations.

Even more worryingly, though perhaps unsurprisingly, after these four years, most Republicans are still not breaking with Trump. Some, like Republican Senate Leader Mitch McConnell, are simply silent. Some are hedging their bets with formulas like calling for the counting of every “legal” vote (see among others VP Mike Pence) or offering support in word (or a $500,000 contribution, in Senator Lindsay Graham’s case) for Trump’s right to pursue legal challenges – moves that tip their hat to Trump’s claims without explicitly endorsing them. 

Others have gone much further. Hosted by Fox News’ infamous Sean Hannity, Senator Ted Cruz, who once pointedly refused to endorse Trump at the Republican National Convention, has been angrily echoing Trump’s claim. Newt Gingrich, Republican former Speaker of the House, went further by appearing to suggest Trump should order armed takeovers of some voting precincts – before Hannity cut him off. 

Who are the exceptions? 

Senator Mitt Romney has released a statement calling for faith in the process, despite Trump’s attempts to discredit it. But so far, the firmest denunciation of Trump’s speech from an elected Republican has come from Larry Hogan, Governor of the deep-blue State of Maryland, joined by one GOP congressman. 

What Biden faces if he takes office, as he now looks ever more likely to do, is a legitimacy crisis. True he will probably be sworn in and Trump will be ejected – escorted off the grounds as a trespasser (as Biden once suggested he would be). Nonetheless, large portions of the country – and the opposition party he will have to deal with – will simply view his victory as illegitimate. 

Such a development was gloomily predictable. The US has had multiple elections in which one side, sometimes justifiably and at other times not, seriously believed the other side’s victory to be to some degree fraudulent or tainted by malfeasance. In these cases, unity was preserved in large part due to elite solidarity and respect for the official results.  

Sometimes, this meant one side didn’t voice its claims for the sake of preserving national unity. Richard Nixon didn’t reveal he suspected ballot stuffing gave JFK the 1960 election and, in 1968, Lyndon B. Johnson returned the favour by not revealing that Nixon had undermined the Vietnam peace talks to help his election campaign. At other times, rancorous dispute over the elections was resolved by one side ultimately conceding, aided by the intervention of the respected Supreme Court – this happened with Al Gore in 2000 and Samuel Tilden in 1876. 

The normal processes and solutions will be complicated by one crucial factor this time round – the President. Trump has already made his claims loudly, and is being echoed or at least not contradicted by key figures. As for the latter, elite consensus is at an all-time low in an America riven by partisanship. 

Furthermore, while Trump is already trying to punt the election to the Supreme Court, Democrats would have a very hard time accepting a ruling in favour of Trump, given that it slants 6-3 conservative. While the Justices are not Trump’s stooges, any decision in his favour would not look like a just one to many Democrats. Three of the Court’s members were appointed by Trump himself. No less than three of them were on George Bush’s legal team that helped him carry the 2000 election dispute. This matters.  

So, what happens next? 

Ominously, the one time when the ability to forge elite consensus over disputed elections broke down was in 1860 when the election of Abraham Lincoln precipitated the Civil War. However, whatever the pre-election hysteria, the prospect of a repeat of that type of event is deeply implausible for all sorts of reasons. 

Instead, the best historical analogy is the 1824 election when Andrew Jackson – who, coincidentally, Trump greatly admires – was denied the presidency by what he denounced as a “corrupt bargain”.  

The analogy is far from a perfect one. This was an election where four candidates had run, with none gaining a majority. However, Jackson had a clear plurality and only lost due to his opponents striking a deal where one ceded his electors to the other in return for an appointment in the administration. (This manoeuvre turned Jackson into a fervent advocate for abolishing the electoral college Trump now relies on.) 

What is perhaps a useful guide is what happened next. Jackson, hopping mad at his defeat, hit the campaign trail and for four years he and his supporters relentlessly denounced the “corrupt bargain”.  In 1828 he won a roaring victory, throwing John Quincy Adams out after one term. 

If Trump is denied the presidency he may well, like Jackson, mount a fierce protest. He will almost certainly quickly start a campaign to run again in 2024. Trump obviously adores being cheered by crowds at rallies. It is also a good potential money-spinner, letting him flog endless MAGA-branded or #StolenElection merchandise. He might even set up his own media brand catering to his supporters.  

 This would be a constant headache for Biden, undermining popular consent to his leadership at every turn. If, after four years of geeing up his base, Trump finally ran again – a few months older than Biden is now – he could just win. 

Even if Trump doesn’t run again, it’s hard to see him leaving the limelight. Republicans who would then want to run for president in 2024 would compete to kiss the Don’s ring and gain his endorsement. This lies behind the choice many senior GOP members seem to have made to cater to the false claims that Trump throwing out.

Still, all this remains mere prediction. More drama is on the way in the coming days, months and years. Get ready for some more weird stuff to unfold.