If Donald Trump is known for one thing, it’s his provocative tweets and one-liners that have upended consensus politics. Nowhere is this more apparent than in his views on geopolitics, which have at times seemed either inconsistent or revolutionary, or both. On January 20th, he will take office as the 45th President of the United States, and that rhetoric will morph into America’s official foreign policy. We asked six experts for their thoughts on what his first hundred days could look like across the world.
Nile Gardiner
In his first hundred days President Trump must send a clear message that the Anglo-American Special Relationship is central to US foreign policy and strategic thinking. He should declare that a US/UK free trade agreement will be a foreign policy priority for the new administration and back efforts by Congress to advance such a deal. Mr. Trump was an early supporter of Brexit, and his presidency will undoubtedly see Britain’s exit from the European Union as a major opportunity to further trade and investment with the United Kingdom. Expect to see an early meeting between the new US President and the British Prime Minister soon after Trump enters the White House, as well as a return to the Oval Office of the Churchill bust, unceremoniously thrown out in January 2009 by President Obama.
In addition to deepening the ties with Great Britain, weakened under the Obama presidency, the Trump administration should focus on building partnerships with other US allies in Europe, especially in Eastern and Central Europe. In the next four years, the United States must focus less on a declining EU and more upon nation states, supporting sovereignty and self-determination across the Atlantic. Under President Trump, America must strengthen the NATO alliance with bold and robust leadership while opposing efforts by Brussels to undermine it through its planned EU Army.
Dr. Nile Gardiner is the Director of the Margaret Thatcher Center for Freedom at The Heritage Foundation, and a former aide to Lady Thatcher. He has worked at the heart of the Washington policy world for nearly fifteen years, and is a leading expert on the US-UK Special Relationship. He has served as a foreign policy adviser to three US presidential campaigns.
Chad Nagle
Trump will revisit the issue of NATO members paying their fair share to the alliance, pushing member-state governments to prove their genuine commitment to opposing a Russian revanche. We may sense the beginning of reorientation of Europe’s security architecture, as some eastern European countries (e.g. Bulgaria) begin reconsidering the priority of NATO given the economic opportunities they perceive with Russia.
Trump will meet Putin and proclaim a united US-Russian front against ISIS, but he will stop short of calling for lifting sanctions over Ukraine. Instead, he will try to economically incentivize Russia to abandon close relations with Iran, and if Russia indicates it is amenable to this suggestion, Trump will signal a willingness to end Russia’s economic isolation.
Trump will also stop short of demanding that Russia return Crimea to Ukraine, instead signaling willingness for Crimea to become a point of ‘formal disagreement,’ not a permanent obstacle to improved relations. Crimea may assume a status similar to that of the Baltic states during the Cold War, when the US refused to recognize Soviet sovereignty.
Putin will agree publicly to Trump’s proposals (with no intention of honoring their promises), thus beginning the third ‘reset’ of US-Russian relations since the Cold War.
Chad Nagle is a professional writer and trained lawyer who has worked as both a business consultant and human rights monitor in the former Communist bloc and elsewhere. He has also taught at the university level in both Turkey and Japan. He currently lives in the Washington, DC area.
Christian Caryl
If Trump’s transition has shown us anything, it’s that he’s a flip-flopper extraordinaire. He reversed his position on waterboarding after a brief conversation with ex-general James Mattis, now his Defense Secretary. His much-ballyhooed wall on the Mexican border has now morphed into a series of modest fences. And he’s been considering Mitt Romney for the position of Secretary of State – even though Romney is a notorious hard-liner when it comes to Putin’s Russia, just the opposite of Trump’s stated positions.
One thing still comes through fairly clearly, though: Trump’s foreign policy in his first weeks in office will focus not on security or diplomacy but on trade. He’s stated clearly that he will start his term by pulling the US out of the North American Free Trade Agreement and canceling negotiations on the Trans-Pacific Partnership. These are the issues he feels most strongly about, and they’re the ones that resonate the most with his voters.
Even so, there are some ominous signs of a fundamental realignment in the offing. Trump has now extended a warm invitation to Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, an anti-migrant eurosceptic who has declared that he wants to transform his country into an “illiberal democracy.” Trump’s appointee for National Security Adviser, Michael Flynn, wants Washington to take a more conciliatory position toward Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan despite his increasingly authoritarian turn. And Trump’s notorious flirtations with Putin and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi don’t bode well for the future, either. One can only hope that the new president will prove capable of learning on the job.
Christian Caryl is a Contributing Editor at Foreign Policy magazine and author of Strange Rebels: 1979 and the Birth of the 21st Century.
Michael Ledeen
What will Trump’s foreign policy be? We won’t know for sure until he actually starts acting in late January, and a lot of his words and gambits are more show biz than geopolitics, but his Cabinet choices are one clear indication of his orientation.
He has nominated two military leaders, both of whom were terminated after public disagreements with President Barack Obama over America’s conduct of the war in Iraq and Afghanistan. Both have deplored the “deal” with Iran. Both have endorsed “regime change” in Tehran. And Trump has chosen a Congressman, Mike Pompeo – who has been openly critical of Obama’s Iran policy, and, like Generals Flynn and Mattis has supported regime change – to head CIA.
So I expect the Trump Administration to be openly critical of the Iranian regime, to support calls for greater freedom for the Iranian people, and to support Iranian dissidents.
Great military leaders are reluctant to send their men and women into combat, but Pompeo, Flynn, and Mattis know there are political and economic weapons they can use against the Islamic Republic. They will also be keen to deprive Iran of the full support it currently receives from Vladimir Putin, and we can already see the two sides maneuvering for gains from a possible deal. You can be sure that the mullahs are very concerned.
With three such key figures, the United States will be much more assertive, and will attempt to reconstitute the sort of alliance network that worked so well to defeat the Soviet Empire.
Let’s see if the new secretary of state is cut from the same material.
Michael Ledeen is a historian and the author of 37 books. He is a Freedom Scholar at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington.
Gerald Warner
The best guide to Donald Trump’s foreign policy is the speech he delivered in Washington on 27 April, though in some respects events have rendered it outdated.
The three pillars of his policy are the destruction of radical Islam, vastly increased military spending and a return to realpolitik – America first. He will make his allies pay for American protection. He will reach out to Russia, seeking cooperation: Syria would be a priority. Trump and Putin could jointly annihilate the largely jihadist Syrian rebels whom Britain has so irresponsibly supported.
Since Trump’s speech, Brexit has been voted for, but not implemented by Theresa May and her unfit-for-purpose government, giving mischief-makers opportunities to frustrate the process. Trump will back Brexit strongly, unless UK incompetence and snubbing of his friend Nigel Farage persuade him Britain is not worth having as an ally.
There is a possibility of a major geopolitical reconfiguration of Europe. Although Norbert Hofer lost the Austrian presidency on Sunday his party could still win the general election and take Austria into the Visegrad group, which the immigration crisis is forging into a rival confederation to the imploding EU. That would create a tripartite power bloc: America, Russia and Visegrad, leaving the rump EU as disregarded Fly-over States. For liberalism the jig is up.
Gerald Warner is a commentator on politics and social issues, a columnist and author. He was formerly special adviser to a Cabinet minister and a speechwriter to prime minister John Major. He is currently working on a six-volume roman fleuve covering eighty years of European history and celebrating the lost traditionalist values and political culture of that continent.
Mark Malcomson
It is highly likely that President Trump will face a number of tests very soon after his inauguration.
North Korea which makes unpredictability a hallmark of its foreign policy might finally have met its match and it will find it hard to resist throwing down a challenge to see whether there are more than harsh words coming from Washington. Iran will be watching carefully to see whether the recent partial thaw in relations will hold, and there are hawks on both sides who will try to ensure it doesn’t.
The most critical challenge will come from Russia as Putin will try to get the measure of his opposite number. Despite the apparent mutual admiration club that developed during the election, the reality is that Putin will use any and every opportunity to further the cause of Russia by weakening NATO and US’s commitment to protecting Europe.
Expect a number of subtle and not-so-subtle challenges, with the Baltic States being the obvious place to test the resolve of the new administration.
Mark Malcomson is been Principal and CEO of City Lit, Europe’s biggest adult education college, where he teaches American politics. Previously, he was the Director of Executive Education at London Business School and President of the New York Institute of Finance.
