Will Macron or the unions prevail in France’s Spring of Discontent?

In 1974, with the unions in revolt and his government in tatters, prime minister Edward Heath called a general election around the theme “Who governs Britain?”. The answer turned out to be, not him. Instead, Labour’s Harold Wilson moved into Downing Street, to face exactly the same range of problems that had so bedevilled Heath. 

I doubt that Emmanuel Macron is a keen student of British politics in the 1970s. He was three years away from being born when Heath issued his clarion call. Britain was the Sick Man of Europe. France, by contrast, was nearing the end of the trente-glorieuses that had seen its economy rise spectacularly from the ashes of the Second World War.

Half a century on, after three years of the pandemic and twelve months of the war in Ukraine, both countries find themselves up against it in ways not seen for a generation or more. But while the British grumble and gurn, desperate to be rid of the Tories, it is France that is in open revolt. 

The nationwide strike action, set to begin tomorrow could, if the unions get their way, last for days, even weeks, aimed at forcing Macron to abandon a pension reform package that would raise the state retirement age from 62 to 64. 

The two biggest syndicats, the CGT and the CFDT, are pulling out all the stops, which in this case includes teachers, gas and electricity workers, refinery staff, train drivers and wage-earners throughout whole sections of private industry.  

According to Philippe Martinez, the Super Mario lookalike head of the CGT, the action will block the entire economy, with workers in oil refineries, steel plants, pharmaceutical factories, vehicle and aerospace manufacturing, logistics and sea ports all downing tools. 

Even refuse collectors have been asked to join the fight, calling to mind the UK’s Winter of Discontent in 1979 when rubbish piled up on the streets and bodies went unburied. 

Tomorrow (Tuesday), the unions’ plan is to divert millions of workers away from their places of employment onto the streets of France, with at least 100,000 protesters expected to join a midday march in Paris. Truck drivers are said to be ready to blockade trunk roads across the nation. There is talk, too, of “Robin Hood” tactics in which gas and electricity are provided free to ordinary people, allowing them to support the strike without the risk of having their power and means of cooking food cut off. 

Heady stuff – and there is no doubt that the unions, with the support of the Far Left and Far Right in parliament, are serious this time. They are banking everything on the mood of voters, who by at least two-to-one are strongly opposed to any increase in the retirement age and would, if anything, like to see it revert to 60. 

But though the Left in particular, working in close harmony with the labour unions, is hoping to humiliate Macron, it very much remains to be seen how successful it will be in achieving its goal. A general strike is as a general strike does. The President is standing firm – “I have nothing more to say on this issue,” he told journalists, loftily, on Sunday. He appears determined to out-last the protests and to wear down the unions and their members as they gradually run out of money and ideas in the days and weeks ahead. 

The police and the gendarmerie are on full alert under the stern direction of interior minister Gérald Darmamin. Politically, the National Assembly, having failed, amid acrimonious debate, to make any progress on dishing the reform Bill, has effectively been cut out of the process. In its place, in the Luxembourg Palace, the Senate – a much more decorous body – is poring over the proposed legislation with a view to passing it up, with only minor amendments, to Macron for his signature. 

Should the Bill pass into law while the unions work to hold the government to ransom, only two things, realistically, can happen. Either Macron will pause the reform and, in all likelihood, call fresh elections to the Assembly, or the unions will have to stand and watch as their strikes run out of steam and the country, however reluctantly, returns to normal. 

My money is on the latter. But both sides are bloody-minded and I wouldn’t wager more than, say, ten euros on the outcome. As for the economy, there is nothing positive to be said. In the short-run, the results of a prolonged action are bound to hit hard. Only in the longer term, always assuming that Macron prevails, is there any prospect of a stronger France emerging.

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