Will Netanyahu’s US visit go to plan?

Benjamin Netanyahu is in Washington for his first state visit since October 7, seeking to lock in support from US lawmakers and presidential candidates as his nation wars with Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis.

The Israeli Prime Minister is scheduled to address Congress on Wednesday and is hoping to meet with Biden, Harris, and Trump during his week-long visit.

The trip comes during a moment of American political turmoil following the assassination attempt on Trump and the abrupt departure of Biden from the election race. 

Upon his arrival yesterday, Netanyahu was unceremoniously denied a Presidential greeting, receiving only a muted reception from diplomats instead. His one-on-one with Biden, originally scheduled for Monday, remains tentative as the US President battles a bout of Covid. Since Biden’s diagnosis on Wednesday, he has completely avoided the public eye, only briefly emerging over the phone to give a gravelly endorsement of the VP’s run during her first campaign event.

A US official has indicated that the meeting between Biden and Netanyahu will now happen on Thursday, as the President’s physician has said his symptoms are resolving. Republican detractors, deeply untrusting of a White House that has consistently misled the public on the President’s health – including his eight visits with a Parkinson’s specialist – are, comically, demanding proof of life. 

If the meeting does materialise, it can be expected that the US President will continue pressuring Netanyahu towards a ceasefire while standing by his commitments to Israel’s defence. 

Netanyahu will also be eager to make his case in his private one-on-one with Kamala Harris, who confirmed last night that she has the delegates required for the Democratic nomination. Harris, while generally supportive of Israel, has been less enthusiastic than Biden in her backing of the war in Gaza. 

In March, Harris led the administration’s calls for an immediate, albeit temporary, ceasefire, and those close to her staff allege she has urged Biden to adopt a policy approach towards Gaza that pays closer attention to international law. 

Harris not only skipped greeting Netanyahu on the tarmac, she is also expected to skip his Wednesday Congressional address, opting instead for a pre-planned appearance at an Indiana sorority. This diplomatic snub suggests that a Harris administration may take a harder line on Israel, potentially conditioning support to pressure for a ceasefire.

Netanyahu will certainly attempt to sway the Democratic candidate away from her reservations but that task will be made more difficult by the protests currently raging in the streets of DC and in the halls of Congress in opposition to his address. Still trailing in the polls, Harris’ courting of the progressive vote is likely to take precedence over building a rapport with Israel’s right-wing PM.

Netanyahu has also signalled his intention to meet with Trump yet the frontrunner has remained ambivalent on a potential sit-down. While advancing arguably the most pro-Israel policy platform during his first term of any recent US President, Donald has a major personal gripe with Bibi. After several spats during their time in office together, the Israeli PM’s congratulatory message to Biden in 2020 was the final straw for Trump, who fumed, “F**k him… Bibi has made a terrible mistake.”

Trump has allowed personal vendettas to fuel foreign policy decisions in the past. Meaning Netanyahu will be keen to smooth things over before a vengeful Trump returns to office and makes rash decisions to Israel’s detriment. 

Netanyahu’s visit not only coincides with historical turbulence in the United States, but also comes as Israel faces one of its most challenging weeks since October 7. On Friday, Tel-Aviv’s illusion of safety was shattered by a deadly Houthi drone attack launched from Yemen, over 1,000 miles to Israel’s south. The incident amplified calls for Netanyahu’s resignation, as opposition leader Yair Lapid accused the PM of “being unable to provide the citizens of Israel with security.”

Facing ever-mounting pressure on the home front, Netanyahu risks falling flat in his US state appearance as a sickly Biden, a hesitant Harris, and a grudging Trump could result in far from the warm welcome that the embattled Israeli leader would have expected. 

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