Will Pelosi dare to visit Taiwan?

Tensions are soaring between the world’s two largest superpowers this week, after China threatened military action if US House Speaker, Nancy Pelosi, presses ahead with a visit to Taiwan in the coming days.

Pelosi, 82, is currently in Singapore as part of an Asian tour. A pit stop in Taiwan – the democratic island of 23 million that Beijing claims is part of China – is not yet confirmed, or included in her official itinerary.

Yet rumours are circulating that she might press ahead with the visit, and Beijing is taking hostile preventative measures. If Pelosi does choose to visit the territory, China’s defence ministry has warned, the “Chinese military will never sit idly by.”

It would be the first visit of a US House speaker to the island in a quarter of a century. And, according to Chinese officials, it would signal US support for Taiwanese independence, thus breaching the “one China” policy governing the territory’s status. 

Last week, Chinese President Xi Jinping reiterated his position on US meddling in Taiwan in a rare phone call with Joe Biden. “Those who play with fire will perish by it,” China’s foreign ministry quoted Xi as saying.

What do we know about Xi’s intentions towards Taiwan?

Some analysts hold out hope that Russia’s stalled invasion of Ukraine – and the harsh sanctions imposed on Moscow – will help to deter China from invading Taiwan. After all, Beijing is heavily dependent on the SWIFT financial payments system, from which many Russian banks are now barred, severing their connection to the global economy.

On the other hand, the fate of Ukraine has made Western leaders jumpy. It serves as a reminder that hostile powers can suddenly press ahead with long-feared – but much-doubted – full-scale invasions. 

While Xi appears determined for China to reunite with Taiwan, capturing the territory would be no small task. Polls in Taiwan reveal only one per cent of the population is in favour of reunification while three-quarters of Taiwan’s citizens say they are prepared to fight to protect their island from mainland rule. Plus, although Taiwan’s military lacks up-to-date equipment, the likelihood that Japan and the US would step in to help is high. 

Yet there are more subtle strategies available to Beijing that stop short of full invasion. As Sam Olsen, the author of What China Wants, ominously writes, a naval blockade of the island could allow Beijing to seize control of the island’s imports and exports, and cut off any Western arms shipments. This would cripple its economy, potentially leaving it with no choice but to accept reunification with Beijing. Blocking Taiwan’s ports may well be a manageable task for China – what with its 350-plus naval ships and 130-odd coast guard vessels. 

If this were to happen, there would be no shortage of global repercussions.

Taiwan has a near-monopoly on the world’s microchip industry. Indeed, one single firm, the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, has over a 50 per cent global share of production. While Washington has attempted to build a rival chip industry, funding rows have stalled these efforts. 

Pelosi knows the stakes. Whether she touches down in Taiwan will depend on whether Washington thinks showing support for the territory is worth tweaking the dragon’s tail.