With the arrival of Leopards, Ukraine will have the steel to match its iron will

Will steel prevail against flesh? The steel is in the Leopard 2, Abrams, and Challenger tanks now on their slow way to Ukraine. The flesh is the hundreds of thousands of conscripted Russians Putin is prepared to throw at them this year in a new offensive.

The Russian leader’s spokesman says: “These tanks will burn like all the rest. They are just very expensive.” In reality, the Kremlin is nervous. And wrong. The German built Leopard 2 A6 is not “just” expensive, it’s one of the best battle tanks in the world – some say the best.

It has a top speed of 72km/h, faster than the American Abrams (68km/h) and Britain’s Challenger 2 (56km/h) and is highly manoeuvrable. Unlike the thirsty Abrams, which runs off jet fuel, the Leopard sips diesel and has a range of about 500km, or 200 km off-road. It has night vision sights and a laser range finder and can hit targets up to 10,000 metres (6 miles) away although accuracy begins to decrease past 3,000 metres. It can cross water four metres deep and even has a snorkel.

This will all come in useful when the expected Russian offensive begins in as little as a few weeks’ time. They have spent the winter straightening their front lines and training an initial mobilisation of 300,000 conscripts with another 200,000 possibly still to be called up. They are joining the approximately 200,000 troops already inside Ukraine. Ukraine’s impressive advances of last autumn ground to a halt during the winter, while the Russians staged mini offensives in the Donbass region which were costly in terms of casualties but made only small gains.

If and when the offensive comes it is likely to be in the Donbass and Moscow will again throw massed infantry at the Ukrainian lines hoping to overwhelm them. The senior ranks in the Russian military are not known for their aversion to high casualty rates on their own side – a characteristic of every Russian army going back centuries.

If the Russians wait until the spring or summer to make a serious push then dozens of the Leopards will be waiting for them after Germany’s decision to send 14 to Ukraine with Poland, Spain, Norway, and Finland expected to follow suit. So might the 14 British Challenger 2 tanks, although the 31 Abrams offered by the Americans require a lot more crew training and may not arrive until the end of the year. France is considering sending a number of its main battle tanks – the Leclerc.

The Russian advance could take place anywhere along a 1,000km long front but most likely will come out of the Donbas region and/or further north near Kharkiv.

Another assault on Kyiv cannot be ruled out, possibly coming out of Belarus again. If so, that means fighting in Polesia – a wooded swampy region north of the capital stretching up to the Belarus border. It’s not ideal terrain for a tank, and Ukraine may hold some of its Leopards closer to the capital in case the Russians can break through the heavily mined and defended routes south to Kyiv.

The Ukrainians do already have tanks – hundreds of them. Poland, North Macedonia, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia have all donated Soviet built T-72s. However, Russia still has far more than Ukraine and sometimes deploys its T-90 which is far superior to the T-72.  One hundred or so Leopolds will not be a silver bullet ensuring a Ukrainian victory, but they will significantly enhance its ability to hold off the Russian onslaught especially when the 50 Bradley Fighting Vehicles (BFVs) promised by the US show up within a few weeks.

The BFV is a highly effective tracked armoured personal carrier which can operate on difficult terrain and carry seven infantrymen as well as its crew. It has night vision and carries anti-tank TOW missiles.

Unlike the Russians, the Ukrainians have proved themselves skilled in combined arms operations – co-ordinating the use of tanks with air defence and infantry. Last year the Russians frequently used tanks on their own which were then ambushed by Ukrainian troops.

Once the Leopards arrive on the battlefield they will have infantry on their flanks, and sometimes ahead to guard them. The BFVs can be used to move the infantry towards front lines in relative safety. The Leopards are heavily armoured and can withstand a direct hit from many weapons. One potential weakness is that its machine gun is mounted at the top of the vehicle, allowing a wide circle of fire, but this requires the gunner to have his head exposed when firing which would be a problem in urban warfare and or when snipers are present. In the event of having to abandon the tank whilst under fire there is an escape hatch in the floor.

Ukraine had asked for 300 modern tanks. For now, only about 120 look to be coming. Kyiv would like to go on its own major offensive, and the Leopards would help, but at the risk of depleting the stock. Both sides area stretched thin on the front lines because of its length. Kyiv could use a battalion of Leopards (31 tanks) to probe for weaknesses and if finding one could charge through all the way to the Sea of Azov. This would cut the Russian forces in half and block their land corridor down to Crimea.

It is all still to fight for. As well as tanks, artillery is also pouring into Ukraine. There are reports that Sweden will send 12 of its state-of-the-art Archer quick moving self-propelled long-range howitzers which can fire 3 rounds in 15 seconds.

None of this necessarily means Ukraine will win the war, but it does make a Ukrainian defeat far less likely, especially as the decision on tanks signals the depth of commitment by the NATO countries. Besides, the Ukrainians have another weapon in addition to the steel of the Leopards – iron will.

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