Why there won’t be an election, probably

After the events of the last decade – financial crisis, Obama insurgency, British coalition, eurozone crisis, migration crisis, Scottish referendum panic, surprise Tory overall majority in 2015, Brexit, Trump winning, Macron, and Theresa May putting on the worst campaign in living memory and losing her party’s overall majority – only an unwise person any longer makes cast iron predictions about politics.

But it is a pretty safe bet to dismiss the flurry of talk that a Brexit crisis later this year means an early general election. There almost certainly won’t be one.

Yes, the Tories are getting their CCHQ operation into shape, because they had to do that anyway after 2017 and to be ready whether the election is in 2019, 2020, 2021, or 2022 (the year it should according to the Fixed Term Parliament Act.) Yes, if there is no deal, or an unpalatable deal, Parliament will be in turmoil this winter and there will be an atmosphere of intense crisis. Already, the chairman of the Tory backbench 1922 Committee is warning Conservative MPs to stick together or risk letting in a Corbyn government.

That does not mean an early election follows.

Jeremy Corbyn said at the weekend that at that point in the event of a “no deal” Brexit scenario he would hope to trigger a general election. Although this is what a leader of the opposition says when asked, it is not in his gift what with him having lost the last election and Labour not having the numbers in the Commons.

Thanks to the Fixed Term Parliament Act introduced by David Cameron and the coalition, securing an early election is very difficult indeed unless a government asks for it and the opposition cannot in those circumstances say no for fear of looking frightened of going to the country. That is what happened last year when Theresa May went early.

The situation is different now. Both the governing party – the Tories – and their partners – the DUP – are desperate to avoid an election.

The House Commons research note on the Act makes it clear.

“The Act specifies that early elections can be held only: if a motion for an early general election is agreed either by at least two-thirds of the whole House or without division; or if a motion of no confidence is passed and no alternative government is confirmed by the Commons within 14 days.”

Two thirds of the Commons needs to vote for an early election. Or if the government loses a vote of no-confidence then the largest party – the Tories – has fourteen days to locate someone who can lead an administration that commands a majority in the Commons. May would be out.

For there to be an election, the Tory party in the Commons would have to fail to come up with a new leader in that fortnight. That seems unlikely, when failure would mean a chaotic election and MPs putting their jobs on the line, which they hate doing.

In that two week window the Tories would have options. Home Secretary Sajid Javid is the frontrunner right now. If it happens, expect a terrified Tory party to rally its grandees in support, apart from George Osborne, the architect of the “Project Fear” strategy which lost the referendum for Remain.

There are a handful of Tory MPs who might try to block a new leader in such circumstances. Having rebelled and brought down May in a vote of no confidence, they might try to block a successor chosen without a leadership election. But only two names seem likely to try it, leaving the Tories and the DUP with the numbers.

The Tories, with DUP help, have a working majority of 13. Are there seven Tory MPs ready for a kamikaze raid that triggers a general election? Doubt it

Could anything upend such calculations?  Possibly, but it is a long shot. There would need to be one or more earth shattering explosions. The Tory party would have to split – formally split, collapse – on Brexit, with the breakaway faction voting with Corbyn for an election. A split is possible, but not to the extent that pro-Brexit rebels would vote for an election not in their interests .

Or perhaps Corbyn could retire to his allotment and Labour gets itself a younger leader with wider appeal. Even that works against the early election narrative. A fresh Labour leader could make the Tories even more keen to avoid an election.

In addition, Tory MPs and ministers are extremely determined on patriotic grounds that Corbyn and the far left do not get in – what with him being a Marxist surrounded by a strange and dangerous melange of Communists, Russia sympathisers and entitled hipster twits. They’ll do anything to avoid giving him the chance.

So, there won’t be an early election, probably…