Xi-Putin love affair could reshape the world

“Doctor Xi Jinping, I presume?” as President Putin might have said when greeting the Chinese leader ahead of the Olympics’ opening ceremony. After all, Xi had been “missing” for even longer than the famous Victorian explorer, Dr David Livingstone.

Xi was missing at the UN General Assembly, at the G20 in Rome, and at COP26 in Glasgow. In fact, he hasn’t left China for more than 700 days. He is indeed a “doctor”, having received an honorary doctorate presented to him by Putin in June 2019.

“Welcome Doctor Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin” Xi might have replied. After all, Putin has received an honorary doctorate from Tsinghua University presented to him by Xi in April 2019. Such symmetry.

Putin is the first head of state Xi has met in person since the start of the pandemic. Given how rarely Putin leaves Russia these days, the get together is a visual example of a burgeoning relationship built on a shared interest. Both men believe that together they can create a world system based on spheres of influence. If so, the Americans can be pushed out of eastern Europe and the western Pacific.

Beijing and Moscow view the post Second World War world order as biased against them. Both also believe that the post-Cold War era left the US as too powerful and talk about “unipolarity” being unfair and dangerous for peace. Instead, they argue, great powers should accept that each holds sway in its sphere and will not interfere in others. They also rail against the idea of “universal values”, instead making the case that different civilisations develop different values and it is not for outsiders to try and influence them. The Chinese elite are particularly keen to make this case.

It’s a useful shield to counter criticism about the destruction of democracy in Hong Kong or mass incarceration of Uighur Muslims, but perhaps not one shared by those detained and tortured by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). Anyone being beaten on the soles of their feet is unlikely to be thinking they deserved it because of their universal values. At its base, the argument is not about Chinese values, but about the values of the CCP and its belief that no one can challenge it.

China and Russia are not normally allies. During the Cold War they were at each other’s throats over which system was the best form of Communism. They even came to blows over it in a seven-month long border skirmish in 1969. Nixon and Kissinger spotted the gap and widened it to weaken the Soviet Union. Putin and Xi now see the opportunity to weaken the Americans. This is why China will now pledge its support for Russia in the dispute with NATO over Ukraine and eastern Europe. In the event of a successful Russian invasion Putin will have drawn a de facto sphere of influence in blood. If it stands, the Chinese will be further tempted to risk taking Taiwan. It has spent this century putting the building blocks into place to be able to carry it out, although there is still work to be done, and the calculation about what the US would do to be made.

Xi and Putin are also signing more than a dozen economic deals and discussing advancing plans for the construction of the “Power of Siberia 2” gas pipeline connecting Russia to China via Mongolia. If it goes ahead the project will take years to complete but would double Russia’s gas exports to China. The deal is part of a long-term plan to seek alternatives to exporting to Europe in case of sanctions imposed by NATO countries.

With or without the pipeline China is able to at least mitigate the effects of further sanctions on Russia if there is action in Ukraine. Trade between the two has more than doubled over the past decade and for this meeting Putin has brought with him a large delegation, including energy minister, Nikolai Shulginov, and the head of the state run Rosneft oil company, Igor Sechin. The two countries are also increasingly cooperating in space and nuclear technology.

The friendship is unlikely to last. China’s economy dwarfs that of Russia as does its population, but for now, and at least several years to come, it is a marriage of convenience designed to counter the US. Neither leader is encumbered by having to bother with such niceties as democracy. The guest list for the Olympic opening ceremony makes the point. Only 20 heads of state, royals, and heads of government said they would attend. More than half were from authoritarian countries such as Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Egypt, UAE, and Saudi Arabia. And Russia.

There is speculation that Xi has asked Putin not to invade Ukraine until after the Beijing Games end on 20 February. Maybe, maybe not, but Putin would be unlikely to let a personal favour overrule advice from his top military commanders about the right day to advance. After all, Russia invaded Georgia during the 2008 Olympic Games held…in Beijing.