Zelensky on manoeuvres to keep up morale

Volodymyr Zelensky arrived in Canada today for the first time since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine to drum up more support from allies amid growing diplomatic tensions.

The Ukrainian president will hold meetings later today with his Canadian counterpart, Justin Trudeau, who insists that his country – which has a large Ukrainian diaspora and has already committed almost $9 billion in aid to Kyiv – “remains unwavering in [its] support to the people of Ukraine.”

Zelensky’s trip follows on from his visit to Washington on Thursday during which US President Joe Biden approved $325m in further funding for Kyiv. However, a much bigger $24bn package which the White House hopes to authorise is being held up in Congress, with some Republicans arguing the money should be spent on domestic issues. 

The US has now authorised more than $110bn in aid to Kyiv – far more than any other nation – and scepticism over continuing to fund Ukraine’s war effort so heavily is growing fast, especially in the Republican camp. 

In another headache for Zelensky, only yesterday, Poland – once one of Kyiv’s staunchest allies – said it would stop sending military aid to Ukraine. This marked a startling change of tone from a country which was the first to agree to send fighter jets and has led efforts to rehouse millions of Ukrainian refugees. 

The shock announcement of Poland’s ban on weapons came after Zelensky accused Poland, Slovakia and Hungary of feigning solidarity with his country, by banning imports of Ukrainian grain in order to protect the interests of their national farmers. 

The countries in question claim that the huge levels of Ukrainian grain reaching them as a result of the war is ruining the livelihood of local farming communities. As a result, they want to facilitate routes for the grain to pass through their countries but prevent it from being sold on the local market. 

Polish PM Mateusz Morawieck blasted the Ukrainian president for refusing to acknowledge “the degree to which Poland’s farming industry has been destabilised.”

“We were the first to do a lot for Ukraine and that’s why we expect for them to understand our interests,” Morawiecki added.

The row is a reminder that Zelensky is toeing a fine line. As we’ve seen before with his demand for fighter jets, the president’s unrelenting requests often prompt allies to redraw their red lines. Yet he cannot risk alienating them by seeming ungrateful or blind to their own national woes. 

While the Poland bust-up is certainly less detrimental than a fall-out with Washington in purely financial terms, Kyiv will worry that it is symbolic of a shift in mood amongst allies who are growing war weary. 

Poland and Ukraine may still be able to resolve the grain export row. And Zelensky’s trip to Canada could help to boost morale. Ukraine’s latest “successful” strike this afternoon on the headquarters of Russia’s Black Sea navy in Crimea may also demonstrate to the world that the country’s counter-offensive is working, and not weakening as many had feared. The type of cruise missile – Storm Shadow – which is understood to have been used in the attack is supplied by Britain and France.

That said, the upcoming US election is another major uncertainty for Ukraine. If 2024 saw a return of the unpredictable Donald Trump to the White House, who knows if Washington would be willing to continue to fund Ukraine’s war efforts so generously. 

All in all, tensions amongst Kyiv’s allies are a stark reminder that Russia’s invasion cannot turn into a forever war and that a settlement must be made sooner rather than later. 

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