Zelensky’s end of year message

“No-one has the answer” for whether or not the war in Ukraine will end next year, conceded Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky, at his end of year press conference in Kyiv today. 

“What I do know is, there are many more of us, millions like me, who are not ready to give up. We are not ready to let go of our country,” he told reporters.

A year ago, Zelensky delivered this annual address as Kyiv’s forces celebrated stunning gains in the country’s east and south. This time, as Russia’s full-scale invasion grinds closer to the two-year anniversary, the Ukrainian leader was speaking against a decidedly bleaker backdrop. 

Though Zelensky was keen to highlight Kyiv’s “major victory in the Black Sea”, this didn’t disguise the reality that Ukraine’s much-touted counter-offensive has achieved minimal gains. 

Recent polling shows Zelensky’s domestic popularity at home has taken a hit, with the number of Ukrainians who trust him falling to 62 percent compared to 84 percent a year ago. 

Only yesterday, Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, a top Ukrainian general, warned that troops faced ammunition shortages along the “entire front line”, and were having to scale back military operations due to diminishing foreign aid. 

This comes after Hungarian leader Viktor Orban blocked some 50 billion euros in EU aid earmarked for Kyiv last week while Republicans in the US Congress are refusing to approve a $60 billion military package for Ukraine.

Amongst other reasons, some Republicans voice scepticism that Ukraine would be able to push back Russian forces even if it did receive the extra aid it is seeking.

This puts Zelensky in a tricky position. On the one hand, he needs to demonstrate to allies just how much Kyiv needs the extra support, on the other, he must highlight Kyiv’s successes and strike a confident enough tone to convince both Ukrainians and foreign actors that this is still a war that Ukraine can win. 

The need to carefully tread this line explains the President’s anger at General Zaluzhny, the head of Ukraine’s armed forces, last month when he told The Economist that the war was at a stalemate.

As Tim Marshall wrote in Reaction at the time, Zaluzhny’s intention was to spur allies into providing extra support, but his words inadvertently emboldened those arguing that it’s time to push for negotiations to avoid the conflict turning into a forever war. 

When asked by a reporter today about “fading” western military support, Zelensky was careful. He said: “We have not controlled the air, we don’t have the proper ammunition, but that doesn’t mean that we haven’t found a way out.”

Of course, he – like others – is under no illusion that this “way out” will be determined, in no small part, by the outcome of next year’s US presidential elections. 

While Zelensky insisted today he was “very much confident” that both the EU and US would pull through with support for Kyiv, even he acknowledged that the prospect of a Trump re-election was a source of uncertainty for his country’s future. 

Donald Trump has declared he will end the war in just one day were he to be re-elected. This would inevitably mean making major concessions to Putin. 

Whether or not he would stick to this bold talk is anyone’s guess. As Reaction’s Editorial Board pointed out last week, the portrayal of Trump as an isolationist loose cannon is not wholly accurate.

Even so, his possible return to office would certainly mean the slogan of support for Ukraine – “As long as it takes” – would be severely tested. 

Zelensky is right about one thing: “no-one has the answer” as to whether war in Ukraine will end next year.