Dark winter ahead as France races to secure electricity
With winter fast approaching, France is conducting a frantic audit of its much-vaunted energy infrastructure. The big question: if the winter proves to be long, cold and wet, is there enough electrical capacity to see the country, and its industry, through to the spring of 2023?
A year ago, the results of such an appraisal would have attracted few headlines outside of the specialist press. Yes, more than 20 of the 56 nuclear reactors that would normally generate 70 per cent of the nation’s power were unexpectedly offline, awaiting either repair or extended maintenance. But wind turbines, solar panels and hydroelectric power, plus easily available and moderately priced imported gas, could be relied on with confidence to take up the slack.
That was before Vladimir Putin threw a spanner in the works. Sales of gas to Europe diminished in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and in the resulting scramble for alternative supplies, prices rose to levels not seen since the oil crisis of 1979.
Still, not to worry. It was only when one of the most protracted droughts of the last hundred years caused several more nuclear plants to be switched off that matters grew serious. Without assured supplies of water, reactors quickly overheat, exposing fuel rods to the risk of catastrophic meltdown. At the same time, as rivers and aquifers feeding a network of dams began to dry up across three quarters of the national territory, hydroelectric turbines designed to provide 10 per cent of the nation’s electricity lost more than a third of their generative capacity.
It was a perfect storm.
The irony – felt all too keenly by both the government and the state-owned energy giant EDF – is that France was previously reckoned to have got the energy mix right. Germany was envious, even covetous, of its neighbour. It had recently decommissioned the last of its ageing nuclear power stations and shuttered its remaining coal-fired plants, leaving itself almost entirely at the mercy of the Russian President. The UK, meanwhile, was kicking itself for going too green too early, turning its back not just on fracking but on the possibility of new oil and gas from the North Sea. While looking ahead to a future in which offshore wind would fill the nation’s sails, it was all of a sudden forced to turn to America and the Middle East just to keep the lights on.
But if much of Europe got it wrong, so too did France. No one at EDF HQ had anticipated that so much would go so wrong across the system, leaving millions at risk of hypothermia and the economy – already struggling to come up with growth – on the brink of a nervous breakdown.
The low point was probably reached with the decision to reactivate a coal-fired plant east of the city of Metz that was shut, with much environmental fanfare, just as supplies of gas from Russia began to dry up. This month, the station is set to re-open, fed by 300,000 tonnes of coal specially imported from Poland. The symbolism could hardly be more damaging for President Macron and his minority administration.
Yet all may not be lost. Just as pride comes before a fall, so is it darkest before the dawn – not least north of the Seine on a cold, frosty morning. Having been brought 100 per cent under state control this summer, EDF has gone into overdrive in a bid to secure the electricity needed to keep the nation from grinding to a halt.
An army of engineers and technicians has descended on nuclear plants in every corner of the country, from Gravelines, west of Dunkirk, to Marcoule in the wine-growing region of the Côtes du Rhône. They are working to repair micro-cracks and corrosion detected in the containment systems used to maintain a constant temperature in reactor cores. The latest information suggests that all but five of the 54 reactors supplying the grid will be online by late-December, with the rest coming on stream by early February at the latest.
In the meantime, ministers are praying to the weather gods to keep the unseasonable good weather going for another six weeks.
One ingenious solution to the problem of falling water levels is being tried in the foothills of the Alps, south of Grenoble, where 50,000 solar panels have been laid over the surface of the Lac de Lazer. The panels will simultaneously generate power from sunlight while cutting back significantly on evaporation so that a greater flow of water remains to power the lake’s hydroelectric turbines. If it works, other such centrales hydroélectriques are expected to follow.
The French would love it if everything could be home-grown. Reality dictates, however, that liquified natural gas has been bought in from every conceivable source, to be stored in the country’s extensive network of portside terminals, underground storage facilities and regional depots. It is reckoned that supplies, now at 99 per cent of capacity, will be sufficient to cover two thirds of the needs of private homes as well as of small and medium-sized businesses.
In Paris, instructions have gone out to government and local authority offices to turn down central heating thermostats and, where possible, to switch off streetlights one-to-two hours earlier than usual. In many villages, this has meant a virtual blackout, with the inhabitants either remaining home after dark or else venturing out with a torch. “Sobriety” – what Gordon Brown might term “prudence” – is to be the watchword all the way through to next April. Hospitals and retirement homes are being warned to check that their emergency generators are in full working order. Citizens are being advised to keep warm but to be careful not to use more electricity than is strictly necessary.
No one is ruling out localised blackouts in the coming months. Something is bound to go wrong somewhere. And even if supplies remain constant there are sure to be complaints that the government-ordained price cap on the cost of electricity is inadequate for those on benefits and low incomes. It would help, of course, if there were fewer strikes in the oil and nuclear sectors, where tactical wage-bargaining has imposed additional stress on those trying to batten down the hatches. But this is France and you can’t have everything.
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